Week 7 NFL Slate with JKSportsBets
The good news is that our newsletter was perfect last week for +5u. The bad news is that the in-game wagers I released were not, including an absolutely I’m-tilting-my-face-off ending in the Monday night game that caused a nearly eight-unit swing for us. I’ve taken bad beats before, but that ranks up there with the worst. You can DM me if you really want to know what happened, or check my twitter feed (@jksportsbets), but man am I still sour about that one. And the worst news of all? We’re now just over halfway through the fantasy regular season! Enjoy it while it lasts because, like every year, you’ll blink, and it’ll be Christmas. You’ll be standing at the fireplace drinking your eggnog and wondering where the good times went.
Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts – Sunday, 10/20/2019, 10 AM Pacific
This is a pick ‘em game, and I’m not sure I fully understand the logic of it. The Texans would only be three-point favorites in a neutral site? They’re coming off a huge road win in Kansas City where they looked damned impressive. They did look terrible against the Panthers in week four, but after that game Watson spent hours on the field practicing with the coaching staff because he knew how bad he had played. In the two games since then, Watson has posted a near 118 QBR on average, and now face a Colts defense allowing an average QBR of 108 against. The Texans defensive weakness is through the air, but they still hold opponents to only 7.3 Y/A, while Brissett is averaging only 6.4 Y/A this year. The Colts have faced the 9th easiest SOS so far, while the Texans have had the 6th hardest. I expect the Texans to take a lead into the locker room and win the game.
HOU Texans ML/PK, (-103), 2u
HOU Texans ML (1st Half), (+100), 1u
Los Angeles Rams @ Atlanta Falcons – Sunday, 10/20/2019, 10 AM Pacific
Last week Goff passed for 78 yards. Yes, two digits, not three. It was one of the worst performances I’ve seen by a starting QB all year. The Niners defense seems legit, sure, but you must do better than that. Fortunately for the Rams, the Falcons are like a magical cure for whatever is ailing your offense. By far league-worst is nearly every defensive statistic, it has been what has made Matt Ryan a top three fantasy play this year so far. The total is at 54.5, which is a little high for me, although I can definitely see the over hitting. But attack the spread here. The Rams come in at only 2.5-point favorites, largely due to recent performance. Recency bias is a thing even in Vegas. There are three keys here for the Rams. One, the Falcons are really, really bad. Two, the Rams as a whole (and especially Goff) do much better when Gurley is on the field. Three, the Falcons are REALLY, REALLY bad. Gurley is playing Sunday, so this is a great spot for everyone, especially Brandin Cooks (play him in DFS). The Rams should be favorites of five or six, but last week’s performance was so bad they’ve been brought down. Use it to your advantage.
LA Rams -2.5, (-125), 3u
Los Angeles Chargers @ Tennessee Titans – Sunday, 10/20/2019, 1:05 PM Pacific
We’re going back to the well, which I expect to do several times this year. The Titans have gone under in five in a row. The Chargers have gone under in five in a row. The Titans haven’t hit an over at home this year. The Chargers haven’t hit an over on the road this year. The Titans have only scored more than 20 twice this year, against the Falcons (please) and the Browns in week one. The Chargers have only scored more than 20 twice this year, against the Dolphins (lol) and the Texans. Those four defenses ranked in terms of total points allowed this year? Texans, 15th worst. Browns, 9th worst. Dolphins, 3rd worst. Falcons, worst. All four of these defenses are in the bottom half of nearly every statistical defensive category. Meanwhile the Titans have the league’s fifth stingiest defense while the Chargers have the league’s ninth. The Chargers offense is struggling. They don’t have chemistry with MG3 yet. The Titans don’t know the name of their quarterback. This is a smash spot. Give it everything.
LA Chargers/TEN Titans UNDER 41, (-110), 3u
LA Chargers/TEN Titans UNDER 37.5, (+146), 1u
LA Chargers TT UNDER 19.5, (+100), 1u
TEN Titans TT UNDER 20.5, (-105), 1u
Fade of the week:
Buffalo, -17.5 and Green Bay, -4.5 – The Bills are 17.5-point favorites. It doesn’t matter that it’s the Dolphins. It’s the Bills. Be careful here. I can’t bring myself to bet on the Dolphins, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they cover in a low-scoring game. Meanwhile, the Pack are likely down to Jake Kumerow as their #1 WR and the Raiders are actually not terrible against the run.
Parlay of the week:
HOU ML, BUF/MIA UNDER 41, OAK ML, CIN/JAX OVER 43.5, LAR ML, LAC/TEN UNDER 41, SF -10.5, NO ML (+36689)
Give that Twitter handle a follow (@jksportsbets) and get the alarm bell on so we can profit even more from the in-game plays. Best of luck, enjoy your football and your fantasy football, and I’ll see you next Friday!
