Illinois vs Michigan State -15 O/U 40
I wasn’t in love with this line at 11.5 but this steam pushed it over the top. Now we know that history tells us that Illinois can easily get blown out in these situations but this team has really gained confidence and I am going to back them here. Michigan State should not be laying over 2 TDs to most FBS teams. Illinois should be motivated here and they are still running high off the Wisconsin and Purdue Wins. Michigan State has a HUGE look ahead to Michigan next week. I think this could be an upset in the making.
Illinois +15 – 2.5 star premium shared and sprinkle ML
South Alabama vs Texas State -7 O/U 41.5
I had to throw this ugly one out at you. Both of these teams have net negative yards per play. South Alabama has a -1.4 and Texas State a -1. I only have this spread from power ratings a -8.5 but there is a situation that I like here. South Alabama is now out of bowl contention with 7 losses and Texas State thinks that they are still in it with 6 losses. If you look on Sagarin he has the point spread at 9 but the harder schedule goes to Texas State. I think with their home field advantage and motivation that this should warrant a small play.
Texas State -7 – 1.5 star premium shared play
Iowa State vs Oklahoma -13.5 O/U 68
The under is 7-1 since Oct 21st 2017 when Iowa State is a road dog. The under is 15-4-2 since November 28th 2015 when Iowa State is on the road. See what I am getting at here? Oklahoma may have a powerful offense ranking number 1 at 9.5 yards per play and 49 points per game but they have yet to play a defense with a pulse. Matt Campbell from Iowa State knows how to play this team and I think this game should set up well for them on defense. Iowa State only allows 4.88 yards per play and 23 points per game. In the Big 12, that is saying something. If you can forget about the Kansas State game, then Oklahoma themselves has allowed only 23 points per game and 5.1 yards per play themselves. Oklahoma seems like a fast paced offense but the truth is that they rank dead last 130th at 62.6 plays per game. They happen to just be very efficient but now they will be tested on offense against a pretty good D. Iowa State doesn’t exactly play fast either ranking 82nd in plays per game. I can see Jaylen Hurts having some issues getting the ball downfield here against a stout defense and I can also see Oklahoma’s defense that is very experienced want a huge bounce back from last game’s embarrassment. Take the under.
Under 68 – 2 star premium shared play
