Tennessee vs Missouri -5 O/U 45
Recency bias can be bad when you just look back at the last game. Recency bias can be good if you see a trend of progression or regression with a larger sample size or even half the season. Tennessee started out the season poorly losing to teams like BYU and Georgia State, but they won 4 of their last 5 games and kept up with Alabama for awhile. Missouri went on a nice run of winning some games until they lost to Vanderbilt, and since then, they got shut out by Georgia and only scored 7 points at home vs Florida. Looking at the numbers, Missouri’s best win was against Ole miss while Tennessee at least beat Kentucky. Tennessee has had the harder schedule here. Both of these teams are trying to make a bowl game here so I think this is going down to a FG type game.
Tennessee +5 – 2 star premium shared play
Texas vs Baylor -5 O/U 59
Tom Herman as a dog. Yes we say this all the time but why the hell not this time? Baylor had their hearts ripped out of their chests last week blowing that game to Oklahoma. At the same time they should have lost that game by more and were very fortunate to cover being outgained by 200 yards or so. Is Texas good this year? No, not for their standards, but one thing that I do know is that Sam Ehlinger keeps them in games. Last week they kept it close against Iowa State and only lost by 2. They only lost by 7 to Oklahoma and 7 to LSU. Those are two teams that are a good deal better than Baylor. Now the Longhorns are facing another Texas team as an underdog and that spells major disrespect. Texas has every reason in the world to get up and beat their little brother. Baylor doesn’t need to win this game to win the Big 12 because they can beat Kansas next week and get another shot at Oklahoma. Also, it isn’t a guarantee that if Baylor wins out that they make the CFB playoffs.
Texas +5 – 2 star premium shared
Duke vs Wake Forest -7 O/U 50
Am I looking at this right? A Wake Forest game only has a total of 50 against a bad defense? This number factors in a huge over reaction to Wake only scoring 3 points vs Clemson. Come-on It’s Clemson! Wake plays the fasted game in College football and Duke isn’t exactly slow. This number also factors in that Duke hasn’t scored much their last 4 games but they at least played 3 tough defenses and had one stinker vs Syracuse. Duke can still make a bowl game with a win here and I think they are going to go for it. Duke give’s up 30 points per game and 5.4 yards per play. Wake scores 32 points per game and averages 5.7 yards per play. Before Duke hit that bad streak they scored 41 vs Georgia Tech, 30 vs Pittsburgh, 45 at Virginia tech and 41 vs Middle Tennessee. I think they can score against Wake Forest’s weak defense. Lastly, Duke ranks 31 in plays per game so they aren’t exactly a slow paced team either.
Over 50 – 3 star premium shared
Bonus – Penn State 1st half +10.5 and Ohio State 2nd half. 2 stars each
