Tampa Bay vs Atlanta -4.5 O/U 51.5
Here is a spot where my power ratings have this as pickem, yet Tampa is a dog by 4.5 points. Tampa Bay surely knows how to shoot themselves in the foot this year but the score you saw last week against the Saints didn’t tell the whole story. The Buccaneers had this game close until Jameis Winston through a pick 6 sealing the game for New Orleans. The Buccaneers actually outgained the Saints by a few yards here. The Falcons have been hot their last 2 games but now that they are coming back home they are in a flat spot playing Tampa Bay when they have New Orleans on deck again. I think Tampa Bay keeps this game closer than the 4.5 points says if they do not win it outright. Bruce Ahriens is too good of a coach not to bounce back against a limited Falcons D.
Tampa Bay +4.5 – 2 star premium shared play
Green Bay vs San Francisco -3 O/U 47.5
This one really stood out to me. Yes I know that the 49ers are a bit banged up but at the same time, they still have Jimmy G throwing the ball and some more than capable backup receivers if Sandersd and Kittle doesn’t play. My Power ratings has the 49ers favored by 5 points at home vs the Packers. Now we all know that Aaron Rodgers is a very good QB but there are 2 sides of the Packers that hasn’t been easy to see. Many of Green Bay’s big wins have been at home and the second half of the Packers schedule is tough. Green Bay is at an amazing 6.5 yards per play at home, but when on the road, they are at a measly 4.7 while giving up 6.2 on defense. San Francisco is at 5.7 yards per play at home and only give up 4.2. Now that is a 3 yards per play difference in home road splits. If you just looked at this you would think that the 49ers should be favored by 15 points. I can’t ignore this big of a discrepancy and have to Bet the 49ers and I also like the Under 47.5 being that the Niners have such a great defense.
San Francisco -3 – 3 star premium shared play and under 47.5 – 2 star premium shared play
Quick Hitter: New England -6.5 – 2 star premium shared – How can the Patriots be Road favorites at Philadelphia by -3.5 points yet only home favorites to Dallas at -6.5 points? This spread tells me that they would be favored by -9.5 points against the Eagles at home and I do not think there is a 3 point difference between Dallas and Philly. Dallas is another team who hasn’t fared well on the road. Belichick vs Garrett tells me enough.
New England -6.5 – 2 star premium shared
