Baltimore vs Buffalo +6 O/U 43
Baltimore beat some great teams the last few weeks and they deserve to be number 1 but is Buffalo really that bad to warrant a 9 point difference in the power ratings? Everyone called them fake news last week and they went ahead and kicked the crap out of the Cowboys at AT&T stadium under the spotlight. My power ratings have this spread at a +3.5 so I think you are paying a premium on Lamar Jackson. At saying that, I also think that this total is a bit too low. Buffalo has played the easiest schedule in the league so far and I do not believe that allowing only 16 points per game and 5.1 yards per play is quite correct here. This total is actually very low for a Lamar Jackson led Baltimore team being that they average 6.4 yards per play and 33 points per game. The Bills have their own running quarterback threat so they should be able to keep up a bit with the Ravens. The Ravens D isn’t is good on paper as everyone says it is. They give up 5.8 yards per play themselves and 230 passing yards per game. Part of the reason the Ravens blow out teams is because they play at such a high Pace. The Bills play at an above average pace themselves. I see some points here in this game but I am also waiting on the public to hammer on the Ravens so I can hit the Bills at a better number. In the mean time, take the over.
Baltimore vs Buffalo over 43 – 2 star premium shared play
Pittsburgh vs Arizona +2.5 O/U 43.5
So the Cardinals got their asses handed to them last week vs a very pissed off Rams team and I think it really affected the perception of this team. The Cardinals are on the up and up a month and a half ago and their last 5 games really didn’t help them much. The last 5 weeks they had to play the Saints, The 49ers twice, at Tampa and the Rams. Hardest stretch in football if you ask me. Now they get to regroup a little and play a middle of the road Steelers team who hasn’t had much consistency at Quarterback. Pittsburgh is a different team on the road than at home. They have a net negative -1 yard per play on the road and only averages 4.7 yards per play. The Cardinals average 5.4 yards per play at home and even though they give up a league worst 6.7 and I have to think that they will step up this game after that embarrassing loss against a lack luster offense with back up running backs starting. Arizona’s weakness is against the pass more than the run and I am not sure that JuJu Smith-Shuster will be healthy this game. We can’t forget that the Cardinals can score points an they will only need so much to beat this Pittsburgh team. The Steelers haven’t faced an elusive QB since week 2 at home vs Russell Wilson with Big Ben at the helm. I think the Cardinals can win this game outright.
Arizona +2.5 – 2 star premium shared
Carolina vs Atlanta -3 O/U 47.5
Bad defense vs bad defense in a dome? Sign me up! These teams give up 6 yards per play and 27 points per game on offense in while being somewhat average in scoring points per game. This tells me that they should be giving up about the same. The Panthers as we all know fired coach Rivera but I think the team liked him and will rally this game and put up some points. The problem is will they be able to stop Atlanta on defense with all of their D Line injuries. Atlanta themselves are pretty brutal against the pass on D allowing 260 passing yards per game and 7.7 yards per attempt. I can see Kyle Allen playing a good game in the Dome here and getting some points in a rivalry game. It looks like Julio should be back this game for Atlanta so I like the over.
Carolina vs Atlanta over 47.5 – 2 star premium shared play
