Chicago vs Green Bay -4.5 O/U 40.5
So here we are back to a huge rivalry game. Chicago is fighting to stay alive for playoff contention and Green Bay is trying to find a first round bye week. I think what we are seeing out of Green bay is that they have a great plan for each game and scheme their way to a great first half showing. The problem is that when teams adjust, they seem to not be able to put teams away. The Packers are a much better home team than road team being a positive .6 yards per play while in total they are a net negative -.5. This is something that does have me concerned but what I am banking on here is that the Bears have improved the last few games and Mitch is starting to run the ball LIKE I HAVE BEEN ASKING HIM TO DO ALL YEAR. I think with the desperation of the Bears that they can keep this game close in Green Bay. I also think that Mitch will get some rushing years here so I will take a 2 star prop on him rushing for over 19 yards ish.
Chicago +4.5 – 2 star premium shared and Mitch over his rushing total – 2 stars
Jacksonville vs Oakland -6.5 O/U 45.5
Jacksonville is out playoff contention at 4-9 and now they get rewarded for their terrible play and get to travel across the country. Oakland has been on a bad run lately and will be without Josh Jacobs but they are still mathematically in this and I think Gruden rally’s this team. This play is more about Jacksonville than Oakland. The Jaguar’s have lost by double digits in each of their last 5 games. Their defense is terrible and their offense is lethargic. The only thing that they can do is run the ball from time to time but that is actually the Raiders strength in their defense allowing 4.1 yards per rushing attempt. Now DJ Chark is not going to play for the Jaguars and they also lost their guard Brandon Thomas. I like the mustache Garner Minshew as much as anybody, but his coming of age will have to wait until next season when his team is healthier.
Oakland -6.5 – 2 star premium shared
NY Jets vs Baltimore Ravens -14.5 O/U 45
Thursday night game. I really don’t love laying huge chalk but I may have to here. My Power ratings have this game at 17 points. The Ravens are first at rushing yards per attempt at 5.5 and the Jets are worst at 3.3. They may not even play Laveon Bell much so they don’t hurt his trade value here. The Ravens have a 1 net yard per play advantage here which is large in the NFL. What is even more glaring is that the Ravens have had the 7th hardest schedule in football while the Jet’s schedule ranks DEAD LAST at 32. I haven’t layed this much juice yet this year but for me I think it may be time. If you look at the Jet’s injury report it is pages long. Jet’s got their revenge against the Dolphins last week and I will take the Ravens to blow them out of town this week.
Baltimore Ravens -14 – 2 star premium
