Friday 1/10
Butler vs Providence +5 O/U 127.5
Butler has been a very under the radar team so far this year and they have shown flashes of elite 8 or even final 4 potential. Butler ranks 6th in the nation on Kenpom and their only loss was at Baylor this year due to a defense that ranks 5th in overall efficiency and ranks 3rd in opponent points per game. Providence is coming off of 2 road victories against Depaul and then a huge win in Marquette in overtime just on Tuesday and now they have the potential to grab sole possession of the lead in the Big East. One thing that I have noticed about this Friars team is that their pace is ranked pretty high at 70.1 due to playing some very fast teams such as Charlston, Marquette, Depaul and Georgetown but they have been winning those games on pure defense now ranking 44th in the nation. I think that their true pace should be around 67 or 68 possessions per game looking at the trend line. Butler plays a very slow pace themselves at 65.2 possessions per game. Due to some serious defense I like the under in this game. Providence should be a bit tired coming in here and I expect some low scoring from both teams.
Under 127.5 – 2 star premium shared play
Maryland vs Iowa +1 O/U 147
No Play. I don’t like the fact that Bohannon left this team on a medical redshirt for his hip. and I also don’t how guard CJ Fredrick is doubful. If he plays then strong lean to Iowa at this number.
Saturday 1/11
Louisville vs Notre Dame +3 O/U 132
There is no better time in my opinion to buy low on Louisville here. At one point they were a top 2 team in the country and had a little flat spot the last few games at Kentucky and home against Florida State. Notre Dame on the other hand may be without a starter in Rex Pflueger and will have to rely on their other guards in the rotation. Their best player is John Mooney who is 6’9 but Louisville has some bigs like Steven Enoch and Malik Williams who could stop him. Chris Mack has a very talented and experienced Cardinal team this year who returned 4 starters and now rank in the top 14 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. They do well in everything across the board and they capitalize by wearing other teams down playing at a slower pace and have a swarming defense ranking 14th in blocked shots per game. Louisville has played 2 true away games beating Miami by 13 the first game of the season and then taking a great Kentucky team into overtime a few weeks ago. They beat teams like Michigan and Pittsburgh while only losing to three Kenpom top 25 teams in Kentucky, Texas Tech and Florida State. Notre Dame hasn’t beaten any team better than Syracuse who ranks 71st on Kenpom and they have played some bad games to Boston College, North Carolina, NC State and Indiana. I like Louisville here to make a statement and stay the race in the ACC for the regular season championship.
Louisville -3 – 3 star premium play
Wisconsin vs Penn State -4 O/U 132
Both of these teams coming off tough losses. Penn State against Rutgers and Wisconsin vs Illinois at home even. Wisconsin is very unpredictable because they rank 160th in 3 point shooting percentage but they take a lot of them at 43.5% of their field goal shots. Neither team defends the 3 very well. Both teams are about equal in percentage stats. The major difference is that Wisconsin plays slow and Penn State plays very fast. If both teams shoot bad it is edge Wisconsin and if Both teams shoot well the edge goes to Penn State. No play at this number but I think that if Penn State controls the pace of this game the over will hit for sure. Strong lean to the over and it could be a play at under the 132.
Lean over 132
Nebraska vs Northwestern -5.5 O/U 144
The battle for the worst in the big 10! Well it may be an unfair battle because Northwestern is without 2 starters to injury in Boo Buie and they just lost Anthony Gaines for the whole season for a shoulder injury. Nebraska is a very young team coached by Fred Hoiberg after his little stint in the NBA. The Huskers play a fast pace and have beaten some good teams in Purdue and Iowa. The problem is that they are kind of in a let down spot here because they just beat Iowa at home. The big thing to me is that I, unlike Kenpom and Bart Torvik, have Nebraska higher rated than a healthy Northwestern team. The Wildcats haven’t beaten anybody in the top 100 and I don’t see how they can do it even at home vs a fiesty Nebraska team lead by Cam Mac. Nebraska ranks 130th in points per game while Northwestern ranks 287th. Nebraska also edges Northwestern in Field goal percentage, Three pointers and blocked shots. The only place that they lost out is free throw percentage and blocks. If it wasn’t for the let down spot I would have a large play on the Corn Huskers but for now I have to go 2 stars.
Nebrasksa +5.5 – 2 star premium shared and sprinkle
Sunday 1/12
Michigan vs Minnesota PK O/U 139
One thing that I have noticed in college basketball this year is that home teams have really been a good side so far. The Gophers fit that bill at 8-3 ATS their last 11 home games. The Gophers are coming off of a tough loss at Michigan State and now get to come back home and have 48 hours to regroup. Michigan is coming off of a double over time win and have the same amount of time to now have to go to Minnesota. Michigan is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games. This is the perfect spot to be on Minnesota here and the Big 10 will still keep winning at home. Minnesota doesn’t shoot quite as well as Michigan but they are able to rebound the ball much better ranking 48th in offensive rebounding while Michigan ranks 256th. I also like the fact that Isaiah Livers is out I’ll take the Gophers here at -2 or bettor
Minnesota PK – 1 star premium shared
