(updated 2/8)
Friday:
Maryland vs Illinois -2.5 O/U 131
This game is huge. It is for sole possession of the lead in the big 10 regular season! Maryland has been on a tear lately and they finally got their road victories against Northwestern and Indiana. They came home and beat Iowa and Rutgers real good as well. Illinois is better than Maryland as a whole in my opinion and it is because they have better overall guard play. I think that after that debacle in Iowa, the Illini will be poised to get a huge W at home. Maryland ranks higher on both offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency than Illinois this year but I think the real reason that is because they started higher up in the preseason. Maryland’s best win is against Ohio State and we learned that they are not all that this year. Maryland’s second best is at home against Illinois by 1 point and I am sure that Brad Underwood’s team remembers it well. Illinois can match up with Cockburn down low against Jalen Smith. Ayo Dosumu should be able to guard Anthony Cowan and slow him down. Frazier and Feliz should be able to rotate against Aaron Wiggens and slow down that three ball. Maryland is ranked pretty high for their offensive woes only ranking 245th in effective FG percentage. Illinois ranks 185th and is better in blocked shots and rebounds. They are about equal in free throws. I am talking the short favorite here to bounce back and get the W for 2 stars.
Illinois -2.5 – 2 star premium shared
Saturday:
LSU vs Auburn -4 O/U 152
LSU just lost to Vanderbilt. Brutal. Now they get to go play an Auburn team who just came off of 2 huge victories coming home. We know that LSU plays terrible defense this year ranking 122nd on Kenpom which is quite pathetic for a power 5 team. What keeps them in games is an amazing offense ranking 6th in efficiency. Auburn themselves are a bit above average on offense ranking 31st and they rank 44th on defense. This game on a neutral court would be a pickem. Both of these teams play pretty fast at 16.6 to 17 seconds per possession but when they are blowing out another team, both teams tend to slow it down a bit. The good news is that I do not think either of these teams will be in a blowout and I expect a much closer game which should mean higher scoring. I am going to take the over in this game small but I will wait until morning to play it.
Over 153 – 1 star premium shared
Michigan State vs Michigan -1 O/U 143
I almost feel that it is do or die for Michigan here if they want a legitimate shot at making the tournament. The problem for them is that Michigan State is pissed off at losing their previous 2 games and might just play out of their minds. Michigan is a good team on paper but when it comes to big 10 play, they are a dismal 4-7 ranking 4th in FG percentage and 11th in defense. They also struggle from 3. I thought that Livers would be back to help them out last game but I was wrong and they have a lot of inexperienced players in their rotation. Michigan State handled this team very well last game in east lansing and I do not think Michigan will have enough to take them over the hump. State is still at top 10 Kenpom team rankings 2nd in offense and 1st in defense in conference play. I do not think that Michigan will have the endurance to keep up with them and shoot over their tall rotation in the perimeter. Michigan was really beat up after playing Ohio State and I think it gets worse when they face an even more physical team like State.
Michigan State -2.5 – 2.5 star premium shared
Virginia vs Louisville -10 O/U 108
Huge game here for both teams. Virginia is most likely not making it in the big dance. They rank first in defense in the conference and dead last in offense.
I do not think that Virginia can get away with playing that super slow pace against Louisville yet I don’t see how they can score. Chris Mack’s team knows what to expect here. They lost to them last year. Virginia is just a shell of themselves now. The Line came out a big too high
Under 114 – 1.5 star premium play
Gonzaga vs Saint Mary’s +3.5 O/U 151
I personally don’t think that Saint Mary’s is that good. Their Wisconsin, ASU and Utah State wins certainly do not look quite as good anymore. THeir Pacific and Santa Clara losses look pretty bad to me. Gonzaga is the much taller team and faster paced. Saint Mary’s is much more experienced. This is kind of a revenge spot in my opinion when Gonzaga lost to this team in the West Coast Conference tournament. Gonzaga already had a scare at San Francisco last weekend and I think they should be ready.
Gonzaga -5 – 1 star premium shared
Sunday:
Wichita State vs Houston -5.5 O/U 133
I made the mistake of betting Wichita State against Houston last game when the Shockers were at home. It seemed that they couldn’t even shoot the ball over Houston’s swarming defense. Not to mention that they went on a 14 minute streak without hitting anything. I do not know what is more fraudulent, Wichita State’s kenpom ranking at 40 or Gonzaga’s strength of schedule. What I do know is that Houston just had a bad loss at Cincinnati and should want to go on a little run. My concern for Houston is that they still have some shooting problems at only 48.4% effective Fg and they could have some issues with Witchita’s D. At 5.5 i don’t like it as much so just a lean.
Lean Houston -5.5
