The AFC North has to play the AFC South and the NFC East which looks to be towards the Easy! The Ravens are obviously the team to beat who had the best power rating in football last year with the surge from Lamar Jackson. The Steeler’s offense looked downright ugly last year and I have to wonder if Big Ben still has it to make that difference. Cleveland was that team with all of the talent in the world last year who could not put a good season together. Cincinnati was downright garbage and didn’t have any offensive line to work with. Also, AJ Green sat out the whole season which didn’t help the Bengals much at all. I expect the Ravens to remain on top with a huge wildcard to Cleveland if beer slamming Baker can help put it all together.
- Baltimore Ravens – Vegas Win Total – 11.5
Schedule – Easy– At Large games vs New England and Kansas City
Key losses: DT Michael Pierce, ILB Patrick Onwausor, ILB Josh Burns
Key additions: DE Derek Wolf, G DJ Fluker, ILB Jake Ryan
Whom they drafted: LB Patrick Queen, RB JK Dobbins, DL Justin Madubuike, WR Devin Duvernay, LB Malik Harrison
Summary: Somehow the Ravens achieved greatness last year with a make-shift defense. They lost a ton of production early last year but Jon Harbaugh’s amazing mind figured out how to disrupt teams with pure blitz and stunt packages. This team is straight up loaded and having an easy schedule this year makes me think that they could rack up many wins. Their toughest games this year are home against the Chiefs, at Indianapolis, at Houston, home against the Cowboys and at Philadelphia which we all know isn’t too far away. They should win 3 out of those 5. The Ravens power offense features running backs of Mark Ingram, Gus Edwards, Justice Hill and now JK Dobbins. I don’t see any chinks in this armor. The biggest issue that I have with the Ravens is that I am scared that the Tennessee Titans might have exposed a weakness in Lamar Jackson’s game. They basically took away the middle of the field and contained Lamar instead of going right at him. This in turn forced Jackson to throw to the sidelines with limited success. This scheme was an amazing coaching decision by Mike Vrable and it made all of the difference in that game. Baltimore’s wide reciever’s also didn’t help much but maybe they learn from it. Either way, I have this teams wins at 13.75 but I never have taken a team to get over 11.5 wins in a total play. Tough one for me.
Action – Strong lean to the over. Wait it out and maybe play the over if you can get plus money.
2. Pittsburgh Steelers – Vegas Win total – 9.5 juiced to the under -140 so 9.2
Schedule – Medium Easy – At Large games vs Buffalo and Denver
Key losses: DT Javon Hargrave, C BJ Finney, ILB Tyler Matakevich, FS Sean Davis, CB Artie Burns
Key additions: FS Minkah Fitzpatrick, TE Eric Ebron, FB Derek Watt, G Steven Wisniewski,
Whom they drafted: WR Chase Claypool and a bunch of hmmmm
Summary: The Steelers obviously lost Big Ben for pretty much the whole year and it should be a good enough excuse to miss the playoffs if they didn’t have such an easy schedule last year playing teams like Cincinnati and Cleveland twice. I had to give back only 2 games for because this team over-achieved based on my power ratings of -1 point below average at the end of last year. I really do not like Javon Hargrave, Sean Davis and BJ Finney. The only pickups that I liked from their free agency is TE Eric Ebron who will be a good scapegoat for Big Ben this year along with Vance McDonald at TE and FS Minkah Fitzpatrick from the Dolphins. I think it is cool that Derek Watt is joining is brother TJ but let’s face it. He’s just a fullback and not exactly one that catches passes like Kyle Juszcyck. The Steelers did not have many draft picks at all this year and we shall see how Chase Claypool develops at WR. I have the Steelers and 9.1 wins so almost right at the number.
Action – No Play
3. Cleveland Browns – Vegas win total 8.5 juiced to the over -135 so 8.75
Schedule: Easy – At large games vs NY Jets and LV Raiders
Key losses: ILB Joe Schobert, FS Eric Murray, ILB Christian Kirksey, S Justin Burris
Key additions: Coach Kevin Stefanski, T Jake Conklin, TE Austin Hooper, QB Case Keenum, CB Kevin Johnson, DT Andrew Billings, ILB BJ Goodson, SS Andrew Sendejo and a bunch of others
Whom they drafted: T Jedrick Wills, S Grant Delpit, DL Jordan Elliot, LB Jacob Phillips
Summary: Remember that time I questioned Cleveland trading for Odell Beckham when they were already loaded at wide receiver while had a bad offensive line? How did that work out for them? 6 wins. Well this is a new year and I am very impressed by what this team has accomplished in the off-season. The signings of Jake Conklin and Austin Hooper were fantastic. QB Case Keenum is a good insurance policy. The biggest question is how well Kevin Stefanski will adapt to his new promotion at head coach? I personally like the hire and think this team needed change. I also think that they will be the team to compete with the Ravens to win this division. Baker Mayfield said it himself that its about actions and not words. He has grown up and I have Cleveland at 9.2 wins.
Action: Strong Lean over – Play that Cleveland finishes first in the division for +565 and second in the division for +200
4. Cincinnati Bengals – Vegas win total 5.5
Schedule – Medium – At large vs Miami and LA Chargers
Key losses: QB Andy Dalton, T Cordy Glenn, TE Tyler Eifert, G John Miller, FS Clayton Fejedelem, ILB Nick Vigil, DT Andrew Billings
Key additions: DT DJ Reader, CB Trey Waynes, SS Von Bell, G Xavier Su’a-Filo, CB Mackensie Alexander, ILB Josh Byrnes
Whom they drafted: QB Joe Burrow, WR Tee Higgens, LB Logan Wilson
Summary: This team did under achieve last year because their Pythagorean wins were 4.2 and they only won twice. There will be some new faces on both of the offense and the defense. The jury is still out for for me about coach Zach Taylor but what I do think is that Andy Dalton wasn’t that bad of a quarterback and what happened to the Bengals was more about bad management. In saying that, I think they did some nice things to improve the team for the future. A good start anyways. Getting 2 secondaries from Minnesota in Trey Waynes and MacKensie Alexander was a good move. I also like DJ Reader and Josh Byrnes. The Bengals 2 wins last year doesn’t completely tell the story due to AJ Green being gone and major injuries on the Offensive line. Now to the elephant in the room. Joe Burrow had the best performance last year in college football in the history of all quarterbacks. What he did at LSU was a great thing, but I also think it was system driven. You can’t expect the same impact this year in the pros without more offensive line help. The Bengals offensive line last year only ranked 30th in pro football focus. I think this team really missed out on the opportunity to improve that and due to this I think they will be the Cleveland Browns of last year at best. I have them at 5.7 wins.
Action: No Play
