Arizona vs NY Jets +6.5 O/U 47– The Jets are bad and when I say bad, I mean the worst team in the NFL. I am not sure their coach survives Adam Gase much longer. It’s not just the fact that they commit the most personal fouls or having a 14 point average loss margin, they just look disorganized and don’t seem to care. Another big problem for them is that their quarterback Sam Darnold has a banged up shoulder and might not play. Joe Flacco would have to come in to start if Darnold can’t go. The good news for the Jets is that they at least get some guys back from IR like Laveon Bell, Blake Cashman and Denzel Mims. The Cardinals are hungry after suffering a 2 game losing streak at home. This is somewhat of a must win for them being that they have the Cowboys on deck and I expect a good effort this game. The Cardinals should be able to get their running game going with Kenyon Drake against a bad Jets defense. This should also compliment play action where Murray can just take off running instead of passing the ball. I have the Cardinals an 8.5 favorite here and should be able to cover the 6.5.
Arizona -6.5 – 2 star premium shared play
Carolina vs Atlanta -1.5 O/U 54 – This 0-4 Atlanta team is desperate and I still think that they are better than the Carolina Panthers as a whole and especially are at home. The Falcon’s owned the Panthers last year winning both games by double digits and I expect close to the same here. Even with Julio being banged up all year the Falcons are 8th in Yards per game at 396 to Carolina’s 390. One thing that I will say is that the Panthers are better than people have thought going to LA Chargers and Arizona winning both games outright. Mike Davis seems like a nice fit replacing an Injured Christian McCaffery. There is one thing that sticks out the most to me when looking at these teams. Atlanta has had a much harder schedule than Carolina ranking 3rd on Jeff Sagarin while the Panther’s schedule ranked 15th. Carolina was able to surprise some teams but they will be facing a team similar to the Raiders this week and they lost that game at home. I like Atlanta with the short favorite.
Atlanta -1.5 – 2 star premium shared play
LV Raiders vs Kansas City -13 O/U 56.5
No reason for the Chiefs to get margin here and I think the W will just be fine. As of recently, a player who hugged Patrick Mahomes in Stephon Gilmore just tested positive for Covid so there is a lot of uncertainty this game. The Raiders on the other hand are in a must perform type spot after suffering 2 bad losses in a row. Las Vegas has been smitten by some injuries to some key players but I expect Henry Ruggs to be back along with some guys on D this game. The Raiders are a net negative .4 yards per play but the Chiefs are only a positive .5 at this point and that is bad but not 13 points bad. My power ratings have the Chief’s by 10.25 points so this spread is a little to high.
LV Raiders +12.5 – 2 star premium shared and sprinkle
2-2 in Teasers: Refuse to Lose Teaser – Saints down to -1.5 hosting the Chargers and the Steelers to -1 hosting the Eagles.
Bow to the Gambling Gods Parlay 8 Legs and pays 6.6 -1
