Cleveland vs Pittsburgh -3.5 O/U 50.5
Cleveland has impressed me a lot so far this year. Probably for the same reasons why I bet them to make the playoffs but one thing that I didn’t see was Pittsburgh being this good. The Steelers are actually playing at a pretty fast pace compared to the old Steelers at 68 plays per game and their defense is extremely solid. The issue with Cleveland is that even though they have the talent, they haven’t shown me that they can not be the Browns of old and actually step up and beat someone. The big thing for me here is the Browns trend at failing at Three Rivers Stadium and Ralph Michaels tweeted out a trend here. This Browns team lost 16 games in a row there and since the year 2000, the Steelers are 34-5-1 series record against the Browns. My power ratings have the Steelers by 6.25 points and my algorithm that I use has the Steelers by 6.33. Gonna take Pittsburgh here and I also kinda like the under 51.
Pittsburgh -3.5 – 3 star premium shared play – Under 51 for 2 stars
Houston vs Tennessee -3 O/U 55
I gave this out to members Monday morning at -2 but I still think it is wrong at -3. Tennessee dominates the stat sheet over Houston. They are more efficient on offense at 14.7 yards per point to Houston’s 16.3 and they are more efficient on defense at 17.1 yards per point to Houston’s 13.8. Tennessee averages 30 points per game to Houston’s 22. The reason that this isn’t a large play for me is that somehow Houston has a 1 yard per play advantage over Tennessee having a much harder schedule and the fact that Tennessee is on a short week. The biggest thing for me in this handicap is opponent rushing yards per game. Houston is second to last allowing 160 rushing yards per game while Tennessee has Derek Henry and has finally gotten healthy at Wide Receiver with AJ Brown. Small play at the -3.
Tennessee -3 – 1.5 star premium shared
Kansas City vs Buffalo +3.5 O/U 57.5
- Both of these great teams coming off of their first losses
- Buffalo short week
- For some reason, Both of these teams are better on the road than at home as far as yards per game.
- My power ratings has Kansas City a 3.5 point favorite with the short week adjustment.
- My Algorithm that I used has Kansas City winning 26.6 to 24.3 so this is telling me that the under should be played…
- Kansas City/Buffalo Under 57.5 – 2 star premium shared play – Lots of people will think these offenses will be firing after both teams lost but what usually happens quarterbacks will have more ambivalence with the ball so they don’t throw those picks. Defenses were embarrassed and step their game up as well.
3-2 in Teaser: Refuse to Lose Teasers – Taking Dallas up to 8 points with the NY Jets to +15.5 at the Fish
