NFL Week 8 Free Plays, Teaser and Parlay

This is a simple handicap to me and I am going to keep it simple.  This came screamed at me on Tuesday morning and that’s when I gave it out.  If you look at the weather for this game it says 46 degrees, light rain and 23 mile per hour winds!    Welp, on to the run game then.   Whenever a windy day happens I first look to see what each team can do.   The Raiders average a 21st in the league 4.0 yards per run and the Browns are 4th in the league at 5.1 yards per rush.  Advantage Cleveland.   Now lets look at what they give up.   Las Vegas ranks 15th in opponent rushing yards per game allowing 120 per game while Cleveland ranks 5th allowing 92 per game.  Advantage Cleveland.   This game is being played of course in Cleveland.  My power ratings have Cleveland a 2 point favorite at home here but the situation favors them and adds at least 3 more points to the game.  I like the Browns here to cover the 2.5 here and I like them pretty big.  No need to get into greater detail.   Kareem Hunt is also just as good as Chubb.   No downgrade for that injury.

The Bengals almost got the Browns last week and they are improving.  Misleading score right there because the Bengals out-gained them last week.  They do have a great offense, but horrible defense.  What do these 2 teams have in common?  Great offense, horrible defense.   Now it is true that Tennessee does dominate Cinci in most categories and they are coming off of a bad loss vs the Steelers, but does that mean they should be an 8 point favorite on a neutral field?  Joe Burrow has proven that he is dangerous and he can make big plays and ugly back door touchdowns especially against bad defenses such as Tennessee.  Every game that the Bengals played that was not against anybody named the Ravens finished within 5 points.   This includes teams like the Colts, Browns, Chargers and Eagles.  Not a terrible slate.  I think they can put on a show at home here.  My power ratings has this game Tennessee -4 points so I will take the becoming more common number of 6.

Miami Dolphins LA Rams -4  O/U 45 –

The Miami Dolphins are 3-3.  What a shocker!   The beat teams like the 49ers and….   ok, just the 49ers cause the Jags and Jets don’t count.  They did keep up well with the Bills.   Now what would be the dumbest thing a 3-3 team could do in my opinion?   Switch out their quarterback right when he’s hot.  What did the Dolphins do?   Switch out their quarterback when he is hot.  Ryan Fitzmagic from Harvard is now sitting and the Tua Tagovaiola era has begun.   Now when this happens after a team has caught there groove, I think it shows mixed messages in the locker room.   I think Fitz got the shaft here and I have to penalize the Dolphins 1.5 points on my power ratings bringing my numbers to the Rams -5.75 points with upside.  The Rams found their defense last week against the Bears and they could really shut down this team.   The under was also a sharper side from the start.   I gave this out at Rams -3.5 but I also like the -4.

Bow to the Gambling Gods Parlay: NCAA: Nevada -565, Oklahoma -614, Florida -467, Georgia -687, UAB -453, NFL: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -550 – Pays 1.75-1