Detroit vs Minnesota -4 O/U 52.5 –
I am going to go against the over-reaction here. The Vikings beat the Packers last week and I am not sure what to think about that. Did Cousins magically get better or was this game due to the Packers horrible run defense that the 49ers exposed last year. I think it was a bit of both but if the Packers had 1 more quarter, I think they would have won that game. The Lions actually beat themselves last week against the Colts with 2 turnovers. They were actually pretty close in total yards. The Lions have been a sieve at defense against the pass this year being that their secondary was quite injured but now they got most of them back and Desmond Trufant should be able to play this week. The Lions have been a pretty good road team this year at 3-1 ATS and 3-1 SU including wins vs the Falcons and the Cardinals on the road. Stafford is precautionary Covid right now but I think that he plays. I think the Vikings let down here and the Lions feast.
Detroit +4 – 2 star premium shared and sprinkle
New Orleans vs Tampa Bay -5.5 O/U 51.5 –
The oldest trick in the book to betting totals is to first look at the weather report. Does rain and up two 22 mile per hour winds say anything about this game? One thing that these teams don’t do extremely well is run the ball. They are both average rushing teams and both teams need to win through the air. Well that will be hard to do when A) The weather looks bad and B) These teams already played each other and know what to look out for. The biggest part of this handicap is how both of these teams defend the run. Tampa Bay ranks number 1 against the run and New Orleans ranks number 3. Both teams will be stuck here only relying on the run if the weather stays bad and even if the weather is somewhat cooperative, this total is way to high for this game.
New Orleans vs Tampa Bay under 51.5 – 2 star premium shared play
Refuse to Lose teasers are 5-3: We are going to tease the Saints to +11.5 with the Bills to +8.5 – 2 star premium shared play
Bow to the gambling gods Parlay! 1-5 on these: Fresno State -404, Georgia State -1050, Iowa State -550, Memphis -1000, Charlotte -188, NFL Houston Texans -330
