Louisiana vs Appalachian State -2.5 O/U 51
- These teams used to be the best in the Sun belt until Coastal Carolina came in.
- I have App State about 1.5 points better on the power ratings but I wonder why
- Louisiana has had the harder schedule in my opinion having to face Iowa State
- Louisiana has a better YPP at 1.8 to App State’s 1.4.
- Yards per rush are almost identical at 5.7 ish for both teams and same with QB rating and Passing yards per attempt for both teams but Louisiana has the slightly better D by .2 yards per play.
- This is a rivalry game so at the 3, I have to take the Dog.
Louisiana +3 – 2 star premium shared play
Florida vs Tennessee +17 O/U 61.5 –
When I looked at this game, one major thing stuck out to me. When was the last time Tennessee scored over 21 points? It was their second game of the season on October 3rd against Missouri. Tennessee has a terrible offense and they only average 20 from playing South Carolina and Missouri. Another thing that sticks out is that it is going to have freezing rain which usually favors the defense in these situations. Florida can definitely put up some points if they want to but they have LSU to look forward too. They also might not play quite as hot on the road. They only put up 37 at Vanderbilt. Florida has a few weeks back. Florida’s defense has gotten better the last few weeks due to being healthy. Tennessee will want to slow down this game and not let Kyle Trask beat them bad. Florida doesn’t play all that fast anyways averaging only 70 plays per game which is the same as Tennessee. The Gators will want to get the W and get out of Dodge because they have LSU on deck.
Take the Under 61.5 – 2.5 star premium shared play
Nebraska vs Purdue -2 O/U 61.5
Both of these teams are above average teams and both are also trying to break through the big 10 west. My power ratings have this game right at the spread but I am more interested in the total. Contrary to what you may think of plays per game, both of these teams play a little faster than you might think. Since they consistenly lose time of possession, their plays per game at 70ish doesn’t tell the whole story. Purdue actually averages 24 seconds per play while Nebraska is at 23.22 seconds per play. A smart man told me once that the average time of possession per play per team is 25.5 seconds. Being that these teams give up over 28 points per game, I think this game has a good chance going over the total. The spread also tells me it’s a shootout.
Over 61.5 is the play – 2 star premium shared
