UAB vs Marshall -5.5 O/U 42 –
This game is interesting to me. I really don’t know how Marshall got shut out by Rice but they are in my mind the best Conference USA championship team. The interesting thing about this conference is that the top seed gets to play at home and that is Marshall. The Thundering herd has a couple of defensive backs that could make it in the NFL in Nazeeh Johnson and Stephen Gilmore. Looking at their opponent in UAB, they also struggled against Rice and didn’t cover that game last week. What I have noticed is that UAB didn’t play as well towards the end of their schedule and they gave up some points against Louisiana and LA tech. Marshall hasn’t had an opponent score 20 points all season but their schedule was extremely weak this year with their best game against Appalachian State who out-gained them. Marshal is a +1.9 net yards per play and UAB is a +1.2. Both teams average over 29 points per game. I have Marshall winning this game by 7 points from power ratings but I also know UAB can play pretty tough so I am still waiting on the side. I think this one will go over the low total year and I also lean Marshall.
Over 42 – 3 star premium shared play
Boise State vs San Jose State +7 O/U 55
This game is going to be a good one in my opinion. Boise State is once again a very good team but now that they lost their home field advantage here for the Mountain West Title game, I think it changes some things. First of all, I want to give major props to Brett Brennan and the Job that he did at this school. I remember how bad they were in 2018 and and very happy that they found themselves here. He will be a popular candidate for the Arizona Job among others. This Spartan team also fought through adversity after being kicked out of California for their strict targeted virus policies and fortunately played at Sam Boyd Stadium just last week. The Spartans average +1.84 yards per play and 30 points per game on offense and only giving up 17.5 on defense. Boise State on the other hand has been there done that. They won 2 of the last 3 Mountain West titles and have a perfect conference record with 1 hiccup vs Boise State. One thing that I will say is that although they played BYU, they got beat pretty bad that game and were able to avoid playing Nevada and San Diego State this year who are the next best teams for sure behind these 2. Boise State is only a net positive .7 yards per play. They get their points all kinds of ways but they don’t do anything extra special. I have Boise a 6 point favorite on my power ratings but I am betting San Jose state here and here is why. A) My power ratings tells me they have a shot. B) Their .7 net yards per play over Boise tells me that they can win the game, and C) They just played at Sam Boyd Stadium last week.
San Jose State +7 – 2.5 stars 1 star on the money line
Ole Miss vs LSU +1 O/U 73.5 –
- Last week, It was a shoe-in that LSU was going to upset Florida right?
- LSU has been trending up lately if we don’t look at the Alabama game but they are still -1.8 yards per play.
- Ole Miss’s defense has been quietly getting better and Matt Coral throws at a 73% completion.
- I have this game a pick-em in my power ratings but I think that Lane Kiffen finishes the season well like he did with FAU last year.
- LSU is obviously in a let down spot and they were outgained by a lot last week vs Florida. Even tho it is at Tiger Stadium, I think the Rebels will win this game.
Ole Miss -2 is the play for 3 star premium shared play
