Friday:
Purdue Ft Wayne vs UW Milwaukee -3 – O/U 145
This is a nice little Horizon league matchup where you could find some value on the home team. Purdue Fort Wayne is a fine little team that plays pretty fast at 16.2 second2 per possession and and at a 72.8 adjusted tempo. The Mastodons have a nice effective FG% at 59% but they haven’t played anybody out of their league. They have a nice player in Jaylon Pipkins who transferred from Loyola Chicago and he is a good compliment to their best player Jarred Godfrey but the rest of the team is a little suspect. The Big problem with Purdue Fort Wayne is that they don’t play defense and they turn the ball over. Purdue Fort Wayne ranks 287th on Kenpom in defensive efficiency and 339th in turnover rate. That is not a good recipe on the road facing a Milwaukee team that ranks 22nd in steal percentage and 2nd in defense within the conference. UW Milwaukee is a nice 6-1 ATS but what is even more impressive to me is that they are +7.6 ATS margin which means that the books and Kenpom hasn’t caught up to them yet. I think there is going to be a lot of points scored this game and I also think that the turnovers is going to sink Fort Wayne. I will take both the Panthers and the Over.
UW Milwaukee -3 ( I like it to -4) – 2 star premium shared and over 145 (I like it to 148) – 2 star premium shared
Saturday:
Ohio State vs Illinois -6.5 O/U 146 –
This is a great matchup here in the big 10. Ohio State is looking like a team that will be dancing in a few months with nice wins by double digits vs Rutgers twice and the 2 bad teams in the big 10 in Northwestern and Nebraska. Illinois has been a very up a down team and they are coming off of a bad loss against Maryland. They should be better than what they are right now with all of that Talent back and sites like Bart Torvik that still having them in the top 10 are correct in that assessment. Illinois has the better defense ranking 19th in efficiency while Ohio State ranks 58th. Advantage Illinois. Besides defense, another thing that I want to look at is who will be hitting the shots in this matchup. Illinois ranks 11th at 59% effective FG percentage while Ohio State ranks 134th. After that Maryland loss, Illinois gave the game away and only shot 41% from the field when they average 51%. I like the bounce back spot here. The important thing for me in this handicap is strength of schedule when Illinois has already played Baylor, Duke and the better big 10 teams while the Buckeye’s toughest team that they played was UCLA.
Illinois -6.5 – 2.5 star premium play
Virginia vs Clemson -4 O/U 114 – Longest pissing match – Lean under but will take the under at 118 or better if it gets there.
Michigan vs Minnesota +5.5 O/U 146 –
- The Gophers played Michigan a few weeks back and lost by 25 points.
- Michigan is the best big 10 ATS team at 9-2. They shocked Wisconsin last game and really celebrated it.
- Michigan has been beating teams by margin and their closest game was at home vs Penn State where they one by 4 points?
- Can we get that kind of game again?
- Minnesota is a much better home team than an away team is something that we should focus on.
- The Gophers are 16-8-1 ATS at home since 2019.
- Michigan has only had 2 away games vs Nebraska and Maryland
- Michigan is 6-7 ATS as an away team since 2019.
- Wait on this line as long as possible and then take it after the Michigan Backers pump it up.
Minnesota +5.5 or better – 1.5 star premium and sprinkle
Sunday:
Iowa vs Northwestern +10 O/U 159
Iowa is getting a nicely earned week off after the Michigan State covid issues and how sweet it is that they get to stay home. Northwestern has been a very strange team dropping 4 Big 10 games in a row after winning 3 in a row. The big thing that Northwestern does differently from last year is that they really picked up the pace. In 2019/20 they ranked 211th in seconds per possession at 17.6 to 31st in the league at 15.5. Their defense has been quite bad giving up over 80 points in each of those games ranking 12th in the big ten in defensive efficiency. Iowa on the other hand plays lighting fast and the only slow the game down at the end if they are blowing out a team. They rank 1st tied with Gonzaga in offensive adjusted efficiency at 123.5 This means 1.235 points per possession. Iowa’s defense on the other hand ranks a modest 7th in the Big 10. I think that this Wildcat team will be playing desperate and will be putting up some points. I have this game Iowa 88 to 76 winning by 12 points so if you can find a 9.5 make sure you take it but right now I want to play the over for both the half and the full game. I like it up to 159. Wait till mid morning to hit this.
Iowa/Northwestern 1st half over 75 – 2 star premium shared play. Full game over 159 – 1 star premium shared and Iowa team total over 81.5 (-120) – 2 star premium shared play
