The final game of the Divisional Round is the third meeting between the Bucs and Saints as Tom Brady looks to recreate magic and move one step closer to the big prize. The Bucs ended their season on a high, taking care of business by winning 4 straight games before defeating Washington last weekend. The Saints, although plagued with injuries all year, claimed the #2 seed in the NFC and knocked off the Bears with ease on Wildcard weekend. In their first two meetings, the Saints beat the Bucs convincingly (38-3, 34-23). Talking heads said all week that it’s hard to beat a team 3 times in a row, but unfortunately there’s no data to support that claim. I think the Saints do it again on Sunday.
The Saints big 3 on offense- Drew Brees, Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas- have all played together in only 3 games this year: last week, and the two games against the Bucs. The Bucs have a top 10 defense and add Devin White, who led their team with 140 tackles. On paper it looks like an even matchup, but the real advantage is on the other side of the ball. The Saints defensive line absolutely dominated the line of attack and Tampa’s WRs couldn’t get open in the first 2 contests. Sometimes teams just match up really well against other teams. Then again that’s nothing new for New Orleans, who may have the deepest roster in the NFL.
The real talent disparity here is on the sidelines. Sean Payton is arguably the most creative offensive mind in football (don’t read this, Andy Reid). His team plays disciplined, motivated, and in-sync. Bruce Arians gets a lot of love from the media, and we’re pretty sure he’d be a great time at your local dive bar, but he’s not an exceptional schemer or motivator. Tom Brady can only do so much. Once Tom-terrific gets rattled, and he will, this one could get ugly. Bet on the Saints with confidence!
Pick: Saints -3 (-115), 2 units
Key Trend: Teams that allowed 10 points or less in their last playoff game are 52-31-2, 63% ATS (New Orleans). -Credit Ralph Michaels
