It’s FIGHT WEEK and I have four value picks for UFC on ESPN 20 from Fight Island. Prelims start on Wednesday at 9:00am EST and the Main Card starts at Noon EST, so set your alarms!
Douglas Silva de Andrade (+265) vs. Lerone Murphy (-350): Lerone Murphy is the heavy favorite for a reason- the young gun is one of UFC’s bright prospects and he has yet to lose a professional bout. The only issue: his opponent is one of those war-torn, wily vets. Douglas has been in 29 professional fights and he’s only been knocked out once. We’ve seen this story before. I’ll take a shot at this fight going the distance for a little plus money. Free Pick: Fight goes all 3 rounds, +125
Tyson Nam (-150) vs. Matt Schnell (+120): Tyson Nam is a dangerous power puncher who ended his last 2 fights with first and second round TKOs. Schnell is the other extreme- he’s a busy jabber and fantastic grappler. He’s also absolutely crazy to watch. He loves to scrap and fight at close range, which I think will end this fight early (with either knockout fireworks or a submission). Free Pick: No, fight does not go 2 full rounds, -115
Viviane Araujo (-325) vs. Roxanne Modafferi (+250): You never know what to expect from ol’ Roxanne. The “happy warrior” is as feisty as they come, even though she’s perpetually underrated. All she does is get upset wins or go the distance with some of the best female fighters. Viviane Araujo is the obvious favorite with a 9-2 professional record, but it’s more about her potential than what she’s actually accomplished thus far. She just hasn’t faced anyone of real merit. Don’t bet too much, but it might be worth a sprinkle on that feisty underdog. Free pick: Roxanne Modafferi wins by decision, +380
Michael Chiesa (+120) vs. Neil Magny (-150): Both of these fighters are in their primes and on 3-fight win streaks in what should be an evenly matched, entertaining battle. Neil Magny is ready to explode and wants more respect among his fans and peers. While his last 3 fights have gone the distance, he seems poised to make a statement. Michael Chiesa is a dangerous submission artist (the man loves a rear-naked choke) and could end Magny’s night early if the favorite isn’t careful. We get why the total favors a five-round fight but we see inherent value in the under. Free Pick: No, fight does not go the distance, +130. Lean: Neil Magny wins.
