It’ll be the second meeting between the Bills and Chiefs when they face off Sunday, though I dare say there’s much more at stake. The first contest was evenly matched, with each team playing solid defense and consistently scoring. The Chiefs edged the Bills in Week 6 with effective running, ball control, and of course clutch passes by Mahomes. Let’s take a look at each team and how they match up.
The football world collectively gasped last week when we saw a dizzy Patrick Mahomes unable to stand upright after taking a big hit. Fortunately, probably because God just loves football (or he hates Cleveland), a badass run by Chad Henne and a ballsy call by Andy Reid has the Chiefs advancing, and it looks like Mahomes is healthy enough to play, too. I won’t speculate on whether or not that’s a good decision, but if Mahomes is out there, even if he’s not fully healthy, this is obviously a different ballgame.
The Chiefs ran the ball really well in Week 6. They looked a lot like the Chiefs last week, actually, sans Clyde Edwards-Hilaire. It looks like the rookie RB will return Sunday, which should only boost their attack. The Bills have an exceptional linebacking crew, but I don’t think they’re good enough to shut down Kansas City’s stars. Keep an eye on Travis Kelce to make more big plays when Mahomes’ scrambles, something that’s seemingly impossible to stop. I also like Andy Reid to call more aggressive, creative plays to take the onus off his star quarterback.
Buffalo should really be on a 12 game-winning streak, but the “Hail Murray” trims it down to 8. Good enough. The Bills offense has been unstoppable at times, and the chemistry between Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs is off the charts. The Chiefs are pretty good against the pass, but they’re susceptible against the run. This isn’t an ideal matchup for Buffalo, who only runs the ball 39% of the time, but I do think Josh Allen can take advantage and make some plays on the ground. The Bills’ QB has racked up 420 rushing yards this season, and in pressure moments he’ll need to make big plays with his legs.
Speaking of pressure, no one is really pointing it out, but this is a BIG moment for Josh Allen. Contrary to what the pundits may say, home field DOES matter in the playoffs. In Buffalo, with those insanely fun and boisterous fans, the Bills are at a clear advantage. Now, Josh Allen and company travel to Arrowhead. I don’t know how many fans were in attendance last week in Kansas City, but it sounded like a full capacity crowd. This is a high-pressure spot that Allen hasn’t seen all year, and it just feels like it’s a little too early for him to get passed it. I believe in Allen as a rising star but remember– Mahomes didn’t get to the Super Bowl right away, either.
Getting a line like this on the defending Super Bowl champs, even with Mahomes not at 100%, is one hell of a deal. Even if it’s not the “right side,” which would be hard to posit, there’s so much inherent value on betting the Chiefs at a number like this. I absolutely love the Bills and I wouldn’t be sad if I lost this bet, but my intellect and betting experience tell me to pick Kansas City. God speed!
Free Pick: Chiefs -3 (-115), 2 units
Free Prop: Josh Allen over 33.5 rushing yards (-112), 2 units
Lean: Total over 54 (-110)
Note: The public loves the Bills, so there’s a chance that this line goes down a little. This, of course, depends on how “public” your book is. It is unlikely, however, since the Chiefs with Mahomes back at -3 is still a super bargain!
