Hawks -5 (-110), 1.5 units: The poor Timberwolves will continue to be without Karl-Anthony Towns, which is really putting a black hole in the middle of their defense (and offense, for that matter). The Hawks are better on all sides of the ball and they’ve consistently beaten up on subpar teams like Minnesota. Take the Hawks with confidence.
Mavericks -2.5 (-110), 2 units and
Nuggets +1 (-110), 1.5 units: I’m on both of these sides for the same reason– the Mavericks and Nuggets aren’t getting enough respect yet and we’re here to take advantage. The stock on the Suns is rising and the Spurs will always be a solid team with Gregg Popovich at the helm, but Dallas and Denver are two supremely talented and experienced playoff teams. One of the key angles in sports betting is investing in a team before they get hot, and this feels like that moment. Despite their average records, both squads are among the top 10 teams in point differential and they’re shooting at a higher FG % than both of their opponents tonight. Expect better things for Dallas and Denver, starting now.
Lean Kings (wait for a better number than -4, preferably -2 or -1): WARNING— most of the sites I’ve read analyzing this game are on the Knicks side, so this is a rather contrarian pick. The Knicks left Oracle Arena last night with a big upset win to start off a 4-game road trip. Tom Thibodeau has the Knicks playing tough, disciplined basketball, so we see why bettors like the NY side tonight. That isn’t the first time they’ve gotten a big upset win. The Kings, on the other hand, don’t give us a lot of reasons to love them. They’re ranked dead last in opponent’s ppg and their ATS records are abysmal. So then why are the Kings favored by 4? Take a look at point differential. Oddly, the Knicks allow the least amount of points in the NBA, but they’re last in scoring offense. That’s a good setup for the Kings, who have no issue scoring points. The Knicks are also riding high after their win at Golden State. This feels like an above-average let-down spot. The Kings are riding a 4 game losing streak and they’re at home. Sneaky play, but I’m on the Sacramento side tonight; how much will depend on the line.
