UFC 257 has a few marquee matchups and we’re excited to sit back and take it all in before the big AFC/NFC Championship games on Sunday. Below are four value picks that are worth a look. Don’t overspend on any of these – they’re cheap for a reason – but I expect at least 1 or 2 of these to hit. Wouldn’t be shocked if they all hit (wouldn’t write about it if I didn’t feel that way!). Not seen here is my full write-up on Poirier vs. McGregor – check out the full analysis. I cannot WAIT for that battle!
Movsar Evloev by points (-150): Movsar is the big favorite here for a reason at more than -300 odds, but unlike most dominant fighters, he loves to go the distance. Since joining the UFC, Movsar has yet to win a fight by anything BUT a decision. I think this is the best value bet for the early fight.
Julianna Pena wins (+113): Julianna has only lost against UFC’s elite. Sara McMahon is a small favorite but this is Pena’s chance to re-establish herself among the best. I get why McMahon is favored with her depth of experience (she faced the likes of Ronda Rousey and Miesha Tate), but she had recent losses against average opponents and it tells me the game is starting to wear her down. I trust a younger vet who has more to gain.
Amanda Ribas within distance (+185): Ribas is the younger, stronger fighter and the clear favorite at -325 odds. Her last fight ended in an impressive submission over UFC star Paige VanZant. I have full confidence that she’ll win against a vastly inferior opponent, but what’s different about Amanda is how she finishes fights. Unlike a lot of UFC’s female fighters, most of Amanda’s fights end early, with the majority of her 10 wins by TKO (3) or submission (4). I think she could easily do it again Saturday night, so this is fantastic value.
Michael Chandler wins (+115): The striker or the wrestler… We’ve seen this time and time again, and more often than not it’s the wrestler who dominates. I’ll be favoring that side here again, as Michael Chandler makes his long awaited UFC debut. While Hooker has been parading around Fight Island with a nonchalant grin, Chandler can’t wait to tell everyone how excited he is to finally be in the UFC. I love intangibles like that before a big fight. Hooker is dangerous, but Chandler is highly motivated to prove himself and I think he controls the fight on the ground and walks away with a win.
