Live Bet Opportunity on Nets vs. Hawks: This is another game where I’ll fade the actual total, which is sky high at around 238.5 at most books, and I’ll look for opportunities to score a live over bet. I did this with the last Brooklyn game against Miami, and both teams came out very sluggish and neither could reach 100 points. That game had a similar line. That makes me love this total even more, as both the Nets and Hawks are coming off unusually low-scoring games and they both have porous defenses. If either of these teams start slow, look to live bet any of the 4 quarters that follow (or in the middle of a quarter where both teams score well under 30 to start).
Nets -6 (-110), 1.5 units: Now that we got out that total rant, this is a better spot for the Nets. The Hawks are banged up and just barely squeaked out a win against a star-less Clippers team last night. Now they have to turn around and handle arguably the most talented offense in the NBA? Yikes. I think the Nets could blow them out tonight.
Bucks -7 (-110), 1.5 units: The Raptors have resurrected themselves recently, winning 5 of their last 7 games, and good for them– it’s not easy being displaced in Tampa for an entire season while there’s talk of one of their only stars, Kyle Lowry, getting traded. They play hard for their coach and they play aggressively on defense. Unfortunately, I think that will be an issue in this contest. Bucks’ star Giannis Antetokounmpo may live at the free throw line in tonight’s game. The Raptors average 22 fouls per game (the only teams who commit more per game are the Warriors and Wizards). And while Toronto has done better on offense as of late, they still struggle. The Bucks are averaging a league high 120+ ppg. This is just a bad matchup, especially since Milwaukee is coming off 3 needed days of rest. I like the Bucks to cover, and they’re a great parlay leg if you need it.
Pelicans -8 (-110), 1 unit: Last night was a real downer for Bradley Beal and the Wizards, as long-time teammate John Wall and his new-found Rockets blew the doors off Washington. Beal’s look on the sidelines last night was one of pure defeat, and this feels like a great fade spot on a team that’s banged up and playing back-to-back road games. The Pelicans, meanwhile, really need to get off the proverbial schneid. They’ve looked lazy in 3 straight losses, but at least they’re healthy and heading back home. It would bode well for New Orleans to play at a slower pace and focus on solid defense against a Washington squad that can score. Either way, this inflated line is right to me. I’ll put a little on a Pelicans team that has more reason to play hard.
Nuggets -5.5 (-110), 2 units: These are two teams going in opposite directions as the Nuggets can’t seem to lose and the Heat have, well, been rather extinguished as of late. Jimmy Butler won’t return tonight and Jokic is in a great rhythm. This is just bad timing, an unfair matchup with how beat-up Miami is, and I don’t think the Heat are the team to slow down Denver. This line feels too small. Four straight winning games turns to five tonight, and easily. I’m on Denver.
