Here are more free picks for this gigantic Saturday slate in college basketball! For Part I of today’s free picks, check out the article I released last night. Enjoy!
Wisconsin -4.5 (-110), 1 unit: If the Badgers want to remain among the country’s elite, these are the games they have to win, and by a little margin, too. The Nittany Lions can play with the big boys when they do everything right and they’ve faced the hardest schedule in the country according to KenPom. At home, the Badgers won’t intimidate them. But Wisconsin’s talent level on offense and defense should completely un-match Penn State. I’ll take a shot on the Badgers to play more consistent than they have in recent past. I think this is a decent play-on spot for a team capable of doing damage in the tournament and they should start gaining steam, if they’re worth their merit.
UVA/Virginia Tech under 124.5 (-110), 1.5 units: Lately Virginia Tech’s defense has impressed me even more than UVA. Both Barttorvik and KenPom rank Virginia’s defensive efficiency slightly better, but the Hokies have stifled some above-average offenses lately, including Notre Dame and Duke (I’ll ignore last Saturday’s flop against Syracuse, that was a bad spot). Among elite teams, UVA and VA Tech both have two of the slowest tempos in the country. I like that this game is in Blacksburg, too. Even with limited home court advantage, the Hokies will be highly motivated to prove they can hang with the defensive prowess of the Cavaliers. I don’t expect UVA to lose, but it’s a decent let-down spot after winning 7 straight games, so nerves could come into play. For all these reasons, we have to favor an under between two elite defensive teams.
Notre Dame +4 (-110), 1.5 units: Notre Dame has managed to maintain a top-flight offense despite facing the 13th toughest schedule according to KenPom. The Irish are opportunists who like to steal wins against teams who the marketplace thinks are either evenly matched or better. Pittsburgh’s defense is solid, but it’s nothing new or inhibitive for the Irish, who KenPom ranks as having the 11th toughest defensive opponents thus far. Pitt is on a two-game slump, and this spot at home certainly presents a better situation for the Panthers, but Notre Dame’s offense is due for positive regression after two straight stinkers. I think the Irish keep this close in a very evenly matched game.
CS Fullerton/CS Bakersfield over 137.5 (-110), 2 units: Last night these two teams faced off and the game had a real ugly start. Midway through the first half, they combined for only 19 points. Then they finally found a rhythm. In the second half, Fullerton and Bakersfield combined for a whopping 112 total points, each exposing each other’s defenses and finding easy ways to score. Following it live, it looked like neither team could miss for big stretches of play. I expect CS Bakersfield to clamp down a little bit, they have a considerably better defense, but I think the offenses keep winning the small battles. While it won’t be another 174 point game, this number is still way too low.
