Another 3-0 night as we hit on Rice, Bellarmine and Wright State for a great finish to the work-week! That’s 6-0 the last 2 days, 11-7 overall in CBB this week. Apologies ahead of time if my bets are more under-the-radar games, but trust me– there’s way more value betting on those lines. They’re not as sharp, and the public doesn’t bet them as much. That gives you and I an advantage! Onto Saturday’s picks:
Oklahoma -14.5 (-110), 1 unit: Unless the Sooners show up very unmotivated, which shouldn’t be the case in a game that will kick off Saturday’s slate on ESPN 2, then there’s no reason why Oklahoma shouldn’t absolutely blow away the Cyclones. In every sense and every matchup, the Sooners are a significantly better team. Will Iowa State get up for this game? Sure, maybe. Should it matter? No. Iowa State barely plays defense and Oklahoma is one of the best teams in the country in creating field goal opportunities. That means that even if they’re not the typically efficient team they always are, they should have plenty of chances to create margin from their opponent. Coming off a tough loss to Texas Tech last Monday, which was a decent let-down spot, this is a great chance for the Sooners to recover swiftly with a decisive win over the Big 12’s worst team. I think this is a 20+ point win for the favorite.
Virginia Tech -4 (-110), 2 units: This is a very simple handicap so I’ll keep it short– the Hokies are in a great spot here, undoubtedly looking for revenge after falling to Pittsburgh last week. The Hurricanes are in the other boat– too confident than they should be after a big win in the final seconds against Duke 5 days ago. These two teams aren’t close in talent or coaching, and I’m taking the favorite at what I feel is a reduced line. Give me the Hokies by much more than 4!
Belmont -16.5 (-110), 1.5 units: We were on SIU Edwardsville 2 days ago in a lowly Ohio Valley battle and it was a tough watch, to put it nicely. The Cougars pulled ahead of Tennessee State but it didn’t feel easy. In fact the competition felt pretty evenly matched, and that’s not a compliment for the victor. I was hoping the Cougars would pull away in a good spot, and they did, but it sets up even better for Saturday’s game against the class of the Ohio Valley, the Belmont Bruins. Again, this is a huge difference in class, particularly when comparing offensive prowess. The Cougars won’t be able to keep up. This line should be over 20, so we’re all over the favorite.
Loyola Chicago -19.5 (-110), 2 units: Another big favorite, Chris? Oh yes. The Loyola Chicago Ramblers are playing some fantastic basketball. Ranked #14 on Haslametrics in positive momentum, the Ramblers have enjoyed disposing conference foes by great distance. I think we see more of the same on Saturday. The talent disparity in this game is vast. For example, KenPom ranks Loyola Chicago as having the 6th best adjusted defense in the country. Evansville is ranked #206 in adjusted offense, and that’s against incredibly weak defensive opponents. I could give plenty more examples, but you get it. If I thought the Ramblers were marching into this game unmotivated in any regard, maybe the Purple Aces (wow, what a name) would have a shot. I think the Ramblers will be hyper-motivated, though. Only one spot separates these two teams in the Missouri Valley Conference. The Aces might be feeling sneaky competitive, which I think gives the Ramblers more incentive to show-out and flex their muscles. This line is almost right, but still too low.
UVA -10 (-110), 1.5 units: Pitt just beat Virginia Tech 2 days ago, which means surely they should beat UVA right, since VA Tech already beat UVA… Right? Right….? Firstly, if that’s the way you bet, it’s one of the surest ways to lose. Secondly, no– that’s absolutely not right. This is a great situational angle, my favorite kind, and it greatly favors the Cavaliers. Pittsburgh is strutting their stuff after an impressive showing against the Hokies, and I give them credit for that. The problem is– UVA knows that Pittsburgh is feeling fat and sassy. Pittsburgh is the same team who, before their VA Tech win, got beat-down by Notre Dame and UNC, not to mention lost against Wake Forest. They’re not in the same league as the Cavaliers. Pitt has a pretty good offense, but the Cavaliers are looking for opportunities to dominate opponents defensively. I’ll take yet another favorite in a much better spot– Pitt gets let-down, hard.
Colorado State -7.5 (-110), 1.5 units: Wyoming and Colorado State played 2 days ago and I think the Cowboys played over their heads. Colorado State edged out Wyoming, but only by 2 points. So then why is this line right back up to -7.5 on the Rams? It’s the second game, and the Cowboys are playing at home– what gives? What gives is that Colorado State is the far better unit. In the first contest, the Cowboys shot 42% from the field, which is respectable, and scored 72 points against a really good defense. Wyoming was abysmal from beyond the arc, but I don’t think that changes Saturday (Colorado State is among the best in the country defending the three). I also don’t think the Cowboys can score 70 again. The Rams will be look significantly better on defense today, especially after nearly getting upset in the first game. I’m on the Rams to win by 10.
Kentucky/Tennessee under 125 (-110), 1 unit: I think this game looks a lot like Tennessee vs. Ole Miss 4 days ago. Two exceedingly good defenses battled it out and forced turnovers and tough shots for a full 40 minutes. Kentucky and Tennessee thrive on defense and both teams will pressure the other’s offense to make difficult shots and overcome their pesky styles. A first half under is a good look, too.
