Well I wouldn’t wish that Monday on anyone– the ball didn’t bounce our way but what can ya do? Head down, keep grinding. Here are my picks for Tuesday, February 9. P.S.– I’m officially on my very own, sanctioned revenge tour.
Notre Dame/Duke over 148.5 (-110), 1 unit: That wasn’t a great showing by the Blue Devils at Cameron Indoor on Saturday. They’re a young team and the lack of “crazies” really seemed to matter. Even when they gained momentum, they never kept enough steam to stay hot. The young-ins looked shook, and I was particularly unimpressed with their performance on defense. The Tar Heels have talent, but their offense isn’t as spectacular as it looked Saturday. Notre Dame, while not an elite team this year, is an exceptional offensive team (ranked 17th in adjusted offense on KenPom). They’re full of sharpshooters and they run an efficient offensive scheme. If Duke has even a semblance of the porous defense they showed 3 days ago, the Irish should easily get into the 70s. The Irish have done more against better defenses, that’s for sure. I don’t think Notre Dame will take this game lightly. With a line set on Duke as a 7 point favorite or more, this feels like a sure-fire over.
Dayton +1.5 (-110), 1 unit: The Dayton Flyers got absolutely rocked by VCU in their first contest. VCU’s suffocating defense locked down the Flyers, allowing Dayton to only score a ridiculous 43 points. VCU’s lightning pace overwhelmed the Flyers from the onset and the Rams led for the entire game. Of course, Dayton didn’t help themselves by hitting only 30% from the field and an embarrassing 15% from 3 point land. Positive regression, in every manner, is certainly due here. I don’t know which direction this number will go, but I think Dayton wins this game outright. It’s a phenomenal revenge spot. Make no mistake, VCU is not considerably better than Dayton. This is an Atlantic 10 Conference showdown with an underdog that needs a win to keep pace. I’m on the Flyers.
Penn State +3 (-105), 2 units: I’m not sure why Michigan State is favored but I sure as hell don’t agree with it. No team in the country has faced a more difficult schedule than the Nittany Lions. Yet, even with the #1 adjusted strength of schedule according to KenPom, Penn State has maintained a top 25 offense and top 60 defense. Their ability to crash the offensive board is particularly impressive, something the Spartans will struggle to stop. To say that Michigan State will feel a lot less intimidating to the underdog tonight is a huge understatement. I think the recent success and efficiency of the Penn State offense is for real. Michigan State got a win against Nebraska a days ago, slow clap, but the Nittany Lions are a different animal. I love Penn State to win, so +3 feels like quite a steal.
Arkansas/Kentucky under 143 (-110), 1.5 units: Whoever wins this game will win it by their defense. Kentucky is slightly favored here and they should be– they’re overdue for a win and they’re capable of beating above average opponents. Despite their record, KenPom ranks Kentucky as a top 60 overall team and a top 20 defense. If Kentucky wants to win, they’ll have to slow down Arkansas’ quick tempo or the game could get away from them. This is a good spot for the Wildcats who need to get off the schneid, they’re at home, and I think they’ll be up for the task. I handicapped this total around the mid 130s, so I think this line is entirely too high. I lean Kentucky, and I love the under.
