Again I find myself retreating a little from college basketball as I start the week. Loved my UConn angle, contrarian and spot on, but Michigan State completely unraveling in the final minute? Florida with the comeback and going up by one and then only scoring 4 points in the final 5 minutes? Absolutely brutal. Here’s to hoping these pimple-popping coming of age athletes can show a little consistency today. Cheers!
Radford -3 (-115), 1.5 units: This is a good spot for Radford after they just lost two straight against conference leader Winthrop. The Big South’s second placed team will look for redemption against a Gardner-Webb squad that plays right into their style of play. The Bulldogs are slightly above average on offense but they’re very ineffective on defense. The Highlanders tend to perform better against teams like Gardner-Webb since they play at a methodical, slow pace and have the ability to control the game with their lock-down defense. Radford should be able to greatly limit Gardner-Webb’s output and create margin. Give me the favorite in a spot they need at a low number. It’s climbing so bet this soon.
UNC Greensboro -4 (-110), 1 unit: UNC Greensboro handedly destroyed VMI 18 days ago and I don’t see why this game would go any differently. The Spartans have a way of slowing down the game and exerting their will on their opponents, holding a VMI offense that usually scores over 80 ppg to only 59 points in their first matchup. While it’s likely the Keydets won’t do as bad tonight at home, I don’t think their firepower is enough to outlast the Spartans. UNC Greensboro sports a top 60 adjusted defense according to KenPom and Haslametrics ranks them #43 in defensive efficiency. VMI must be getting a little love here in a revenge spot, because to me this number feels a few points too low. The Spartans would make the tournament if it starts today, so they need to capitalize on these games to end the regular season. Take the favorite.
Drake -5 (-105), 1.5 units: The Drake Bulldogs haven’t won 2 in a row since the beginning of February. A tough back and forth between Loyola-Chicago, and an impressive win in their second game of the double-header, has Drake heading to Northern Iowa no doubt feeling replenished. Northern Iowa is a team capable of winning on a consistent basis against average teams but they don’t fare well against the big boys. Drake is a big boy. Ranked top 60 in all the categories that matter, Haslametrics tells us that the Bulldogs play better against teams that try to push the pace. Northern Iowa is one of those teams. While I don’t feel great about Drake’s momentum entering Wednesday night, I do think the motivation has to be high entering the end of February and one would hope the true difference in class shows up here. I’m on the big Bulldogs to cover.
