A solid 1-1 day last night and I knew I should have put a few units on Boston; that was an ideal spot! But 2 days in and I’m 3-1 and I can’t be unhappy about it. Onto Hump Day!
Celtics -2 (-110), 1.5 units: Can Boston win two in a row and finally gain a little positive momentum here? I think so. The Celtics are 8-3 ATS at home and Atlanta, while the more rested and desperate team, is still nursing a ton of injuries. I think Boston will still play with determined desperation, too. Last night’s win against Denver was what they needed but it was expected; the Nuggets had a ton of players resting and they were coming off a huge win on Sunday. This contest will test the Celtics a little, but I doubt they’ll let their guard down just because they won a single game. They’re a considerably better team on both sides of the ball and they’re solid at home– bet on Boston.
76ers -10.5 (-110), 1.5 units: This is another bad situation for the Rockets and it doesn’t get much better for Philadelphia. Eric Gordon and Victor Oladipo are doubtful tonight; PJ Tucker is questionable. Meanwhile Joel Embiid looks like he’ll be suiting up for Philly. Coming off 3 straight losses to hot teams (Phoenix, Portland, and Utah), Philadelphia gets a great matchup tonight against the fledgling Rockets, who have now lost 6 straight and don’t seem to have an answer. I really like the Rockets and kept playing on them expecting some positive regression; it just never happened. Their recent loss against Washington was about as deflating as it gets. Philly is 9-4 ATS at the Wells Fargo Center, which is more bad news for Houston. Their offense is also one of the most efficient in the NBA. With so many scorers and defenders injured for Houston, Philly should completely out-pace their opponent tonight. The only side to look at here is Philly.
Timberwolves +5 (-110), 1 unit: The Timberwolves remind me a lot of the Bulls. They like to play with pace, they’re significantly more gifted on the offensive side of the ball, and they have big men who can run the court and get easy baskets. Chicago took Indiana to OT two nights ago and ended up winning by 8 points. While I’m not sure if the Timberwolves will win tonight, they should make this a game. The Pacers are one of the most solid units in the NBA, with slightly above average defense and efficient offense. They don’t exactly light up the scoreboard, though. Teams like Minnesota can be a problem for that reason. Karl-Anthony Towns is still finding his mojo but he’s only going to get better as the season progresses. Minnesota is in the middle of a home stretch and while they’re still without D’Angelo Russel, they’re still much healthier than Indiana. The Pacers continue to play without TJ Warren, Caris LeVert, Cassius Winston and two other bench warmers, which affects how deep their roster is. Minnesota is fresh off a loss last night to a Lakers team looking for revenge where they were mostly competitive, but they’ll be much less overwhelmed tonight. I’ll take the T-Wolves to cover.
Blazers/Pelicans over 236.5 (-105), 2.5 units: Probably my squarest pick tonight but who cares– this number is still far too low. The Blazers offense was electric once again last night and despite a little dip in output midway through the 4th quarter, Damian Lillard and company instantly turned on the jets and finished with an 11 point win. That was a 16 point turnaround in 4 minutes to close out the game. Meanwhile, Zion and the Pelicans have looked abysmal on offense but that won’t matter if Zion is playing the kind of basketball he has lately. The 2nd year star has been dominant at the rim, virtually unstoppable, and he can turn the tide of a game quick. I think this could be one of the better games to watch all year. I expect a back and forth battle of who can score more and while that makes it tough to choose a side, I absolutely love the over.
Heat win (-105), 1.5 units: Even though the Heat are smack dab in the middle of a SEVEN game road tour, I like this spot. Miami has lost two straight but they lost against elite opponents: the Clippers and red-hot Jazz. Before that, them boys from South Florida were riding a 4-game winning streak and starting to look like the Eastern Conference Champions we remember from the bubble. Excluding the Lakers, the Heat have true mental toughness and I don’t think this spot intimidates them one bit. They may actually love it. The Warriors will struggle against Bam Adebayo’s ability to clean up at the rim and rebound, which I think could also mean a frustrated Draymond Green. Are there any wagers on the odds of Draymond getting another technical? I think it’s more than possible. The Heat also like to slow down the pace and methodically control games. The Warriors feed off of Steph Curry’s elite shooting and rhythm, but Steph may not get as many chances tonight against Jimmy Butler. The absence of Looney and Wiseman won’t help, either. Take the Heat at a discounted price.
