Houston -7.5 (-110), 1.5 units: I really tried to look for angles to support Wichita State here, but I just don’t see it happening. Houston is fantastic at controlling the tempo of the game, Wichita State is not a great field goal shooting team and with the way Houston is constantly pestering their opponents on defense, Wichita State will quickly feel the pressure of having to make shots early and often. Although a good overall team, these aren’t the Shockers of the past. Even if they play their best ball of the year, I can’t step in front of Houston and I can’t see Wichita State playing effective enough to make this a game. The Cougars are on a 7-1 ATS run; this doesn’t feel like the spot where that’s halted. This line is wrong– Houston wins by 10+.
Iowa/Wisconsin 1H under 68.5 (-110), 2 units +
Full Game under 145.5 (-110), 1 unit: If I had to back any team here, it would be Wisconsin. This line keeps dropping and I’m seeing it as a pick-em at a few books. That tells me the sharps love the Badgers and I can’t disagree– how could Wisconsin not be furiously motivated heading into this game after blowing that huge lead to Michigan on Sunday? This is an automatic redemption spot. I’ve read some analyses where bettors expect Luka Garza to perform better tonight and think that’s more reason to bet on Iowa, but I disagree. What does it say about the Hawkeyes when Garza performs at his worst and they blow a team out and arguably play one of their most complete games? Do they feed Garza too much? Is there such a thing? Regardless, my favorite play here is the under. Wisconsin still owns what we think is the best defense in the Big Ten, surrendering just under 63 ppg. Lately the Hawkeyes have improved on defense too, giving up only 63.7 ppg in their last 3 outings. This should be a contentious back and forth battle where both defenses will try to disrupt the other team’s rhythm. Nerves will be high, and I do think Iowa’s force-feeding of Garza may actually stifle the energy of Iowa’s offense. To prevent another agonizing free-throw competition at game’s end, I’m on the under in the first half for 2 units and the full game for a humbler 1 unit.
Jacksonville State 1H +7 (-110), 2 units: I’ve been burned a lot by Belmont, attempting to fade them against weaker in-conference opponents when I thought it was a good spot for their rival. That being said, I think this spot is about as good as it gets, at least in the first half. Belmont is a really good team and clearly the class of the Ohio Valley. Though when they’ve faced above average opponents, they tend to lean on second half momentum to gain the advantage. Look at their games this year against Austin-Peay, Murray State twice, and oh yes– their first game against Jacksonville State. In all of those contests, the Bruins turned it on in the last 20 minutes to create margin. In the first halves they were either losing or winning by only 1-3 points. This game sets up just like that, but I like it even better since the Gamecocks are in a prime revenge spot. The Bruins bested them by 7 points in mid-January on their home court. Not exactly a blowout. Jacksonville State isn’t in the same class as Belmont overall but they can put up points. Highly motivated and looking for redemption, expect the Gamecocks to put out maximum effort here. They could get deflated in the second half, as many teams do against Belmont, so we’ll fade taking the dog at +12 for the game, though I do lean to that side as well.
