I had a funny feeling about Houston yesterday but I went with my brain instead of my gut– it’s always interesting to me how often my gut seems to know better (just read Malcolm Gladwell’s “Blink,” turns out our gut feelings are based on a ton of evidence). Either way, we had a great Thursday night and went 3-1 in college hoops. Let’s keep the momentum going! Here are my Friday picks:
Vermont -3 (-110), 1 unit: This is the second game of a double-header between the 1st and 2nd placed teams in the American East Conference so one unit feels appropriate. Vermont bested UMBC 80-71 last night in a game that was pretty evenly matched. The Catamounts (what a name) shot 54.7% from the field, which is awfully impressive, while the Retrievers shot a solid 44.8%. Vermont had more turnovers and less second-chance opportunities than UMBC, but they still came away with the win (and rather easily at that). One intangible I like to look at, and I wish there was more data on it, is how a game starts and ends. Looking at the game flow chart on ESPN’s summary, the Catamounts started strong and ended strong, which is usually a great indicator of how much control a team has over a given matchup. There’s a short period of time in the middle where each team was scoring at about the same pace, but Vermont imposed their will when the game mattered most. The Catamounts are simply a better all-around unit and Haslametrics rates them as having some of the best positive momentum in the country right now. I see Vermont controlling this game again, without much issue.
Wright State -8.5 (-110), 1.5 units: Northern Kentucky has won 7 of their last 8 games, but I think it’s pretty phony. Let’s look at who they defeated: Conference bottom feeder Robert Morris, UIC, Green Bay, and Milwaukee. Can you feel how impressed I am? Yea, me neither. To make it even less impressive, the Northern Kentucky Norse (these names, my goodness) won most of those games by very little margin. And now here comes big brother Wright State. The first game of a double-header, I wouldn’t be surprised if Wright State plays down to their competition in one of these contests. Make no mistake about it, though– the Raiders are a better team on all sides of the ball and shouldn’t have much issue creating distance from the Norse. This is a big upgrade in competition for Northern Kentucky. If they get pounded today like I expect, look to play back on the underdog at a bigger number if it’s available tomorrow.
Winthrop -9 (-110), 1.5 units: Winthrop took on High Point last night in a surprisingly contentious game. The contest went back and forth through nearly 40 minutes of play. Halfway through the 2nd half, High Point owned a solid 5 point lead over the Big South Conference leader. Then the Eagles turned it on. In a blink, Winthrop suddenly took the lead and didn’t allow the Panthers to assert themselves any longer. I love that momentum going into the tonight. Winthrop plays at one of the quickest tempos in all of college basketball and it showed in the final 10 minutes Thursday. High Point played honorably yesterday–give them credit– but that’s probably their best shot against a Winthrop team that’s far more effective on both sides of the ball. After a team gives it their all like High point did yesterday, a loss like that can be really humbling and deflating. Winthrop runs away with this one today.
Utah State +1.5 (-115), 2 units: Boise State is a solid all around team, and that’s probably why they lead the Mountain West Conference, but this is a double-header revenge spot I like. Boise State plays with a fast pace and yesterday they asserted themselves on the Aggies, pulling away in the final minutes. I expect a different result tonight. Utah State sports one of the best defenses in the nation. They have a ton of pride in their ability to stifle opponents, allowing only 62.2 ppg this year. Yesterday the Broncos shot 44% from the field and 35% from beyond the arc. This was the biggest different in the first game. The Aggies only shot an abysmal 19% from 3 point land, an area where they’re not particularly apt anyway. I expect Utah State to learn from last night’s mistakes and force feed the ball inside. That style fits their pace and expertise. The Aggies have looked really shitty in some spots this year and very impressive in others– the possibility for significant positive regression on both sides of the ball has me feeling confident that they’ll pull out one of those impressive performances tonight. Take the Aggies.
