After the ass kicking I got in CBB yesterday, there’s only room for positive regression today. Here are my picks for a huge Saturday slate of college hoops:
Indiana -6 (-105), 1 unit: I think Michigan State is done. The game against Purdue was the spot and Tom Izzo knew it, and somehow the Spartans still couldn’t muster the performance they needed. I don’t love this number on an Indiana team that’s way too up and down, but I like it as a fade of Michigan State. The Spartans have to pick themselves up off the ground and travel to Bloomington Saturday at noon, knowing their chances of making the tournament are slim to none. With much less to play for, I like Michigan State to buckle once again and the Hoosiers to gain some rare margin against a Big Ten team. I have this game ending 73-65, right over the number.
UConn 1H +3.5 (-110), 1.5 units: I would be on UConn’s side for the full game if it wasn’t for Villanova’s big loss last weekend. The Wildcats got humbled in a big way against conference foe Creighton a week ago and I expect they’ll be ready to assert themselves on the Huskies. The Huskies won’t be any less motivated, though. UConn has a new energy since Bouknight’s return. Playing over their head and nearly perfect basketball against Xavier without their star, James Bouknight returned to help UConn avenge their loss against Providence, scoring 18 points as UConn dominated the Friars in the second half and cruised to a win. This is a UConn team with real momentum and I think some of that carries over into the first part of this contest. If I had a lean on the full game, my bet would be on Villanova to flex in the second half and cover the number. Nova’s head coach Jay Wright is one of the more adaptive, intelligent coaches in the game. Villanova will be ready.
Loyola (MD)/Lehigh over 141 (-110), 1.5 units: Sometimes this shit isn’t rocket science. Both of these teams are really struggling on defense, and it seems both teams can only win when they can out-score their opponent. I think Loyola and Lehigh are pretty evenly matched, and maybe this total is lower because the books are expecting some positive regression from these teams on defense. I’m not. The winner will be the team who gets to 80 points. With a line around 4.5, that should give us an easy over.
Notre Dame wins (+135), 1 unit: Upset alert! Okay, this isn’t a huge upset, but I really like the Notre Dame side on Saturday. The Irish have quietly won 6 of their last 8 games and they haven’t beaten slouches either. Big wins against Miami, Duke, and Pittsburgh have shown how effective Notre Dame’s offense can be. The Irish will have to play with a concerted effort against Syracuse on the defensive end, but this line is telling us how close and competitive this game should be. If it’s as close as the books predict, than I love a surging Notre Dame offense to sustain momentum are overtake the Orangemen. They’ve done it plenty before.
Florida State -5.5 (-110), 2 units: I believe in Florida State. One of my favorite value bets to win it all, I really like how this team looks when they’re firing on all cylinders. And I think they’re still pretty underrated. With bigs that can shut down high percentage shots and get plenty of their own, great perimeter shooters, and not a lot of ego, the Seminoles are a balanced and well-coached unit. I realize this spot favors the Pittsburgh side. The Panthers are on a 3 game losing streak and at home, while Florida State just had their biggest win of the year against UVA last Monday and they’ve played noticeably worse on the road. That’s also why this number is light. On a neutral floor, the Seminoles would be favored by 10+, meaning this is a buy-low opportunity. Florida State is aware of their vulnerabilities this deep into the season and I think they take care of business Saturday. Take the Seminoles.
Stanford -5 (-110), 2 units: I think this one could get ugly, especially if Washington State star Isaac Bonton sits out another game. If he does play this might be a lighter bet for me, but I still like the Cardinal to cover this number. Stanford is still on the outside looking in on the NCAA Tournament but they have a solid chance of making it if they rack up some wins. While both teams have very solid defenses, nothing should scare you about the Washington State offense. The Cardinal stifle opponents and play with pace that can quickly overwhelm opponents. This is just a good matchup for Stanford, in a spot where they should be supremely motivated. Take the favorite.
Louisville +5.5 (-110), 1 unit: This is a much better spot for North Carolina but I’m going to fade the narrative and go with the Cardinals Saturday. Louisville is coming into this game off a 3 week pause. I hate that for them and I usually hate betting on a team off that sort of layoff. UNC bested Northeastern with ease 3 days ago, a team that faced a very similar situation to Louisville. The Tar Heels will probably win, but I think the Cardinals can keep pace long enough to find momentum and stay in this game. At their worst, Louisville can get trounced. Embarrassing losses to Wisconsin and Florida State put that on full display. But the Cardinals are typically a great defensive unit and at their best, have stifled offenses like Duke and Virginia Tech. If Louisville was overly dependent on their offense I wouldn’t like this angle, but I think they’ll matchup well against the Tar Heels. North Carolina is a bit overrated these days on a nice little stretch where they’ve won 5 of their last 7. If they walk into this game expecting to win, they may be in for a shock. I’m on the dog to bark harder than expected.
Virginia -2 (-115), 2.5 units: Poor Duke keeps finding themselves in these bad spots. The Blue Devils get a home game against big boy UVA towards the end of the big Saturday slate. This line is giving Duke some respect, which I appreciate, but it should keep climbing as we get close to game-time. Jalen Johnson opting out could be a reason for motivation, but it would take a herculean team effort to overcome a UVA team coming off a big loss last week to Florida State. I would hate going against the Cavaliers after such a humbling. I’m taking UVA without refrain, and you should too.
