Washington State was really impressive yesterday, I was stunned by UVA’s loss, and Notre Dame– are you kidding me? Here’s to some much needed positive regression today!
Siena -5 (-115), 1.5 units: Neither Siena or Niagara are teams that you’d want to be cheering for this year. Although the Siena Saints lead the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference, they’re not in the same class as the best teams in the nation. I expect the Saints will suffer a quick exit from the NCAA Tournament. That being said, Siena is a better team than Niagara in every category. The Purple Eagles are bottom feeders in the MAAC and played over their heads yesterday. Look at the recap of their first matchup and you’ll see one stat that really stands out: Siena went, get ready for it, 1 of 14 (7%) in 3-point shots. Wow. Do you think they’ll shoot better today? You should. This is a short line in a revenge game for a proud team slated to make the big dance. Expect Siena to cover.
Maryland 1H only, +2.5 (-110), 1 unit and
Rutgers full game -4, 1.5 units (-110): I love the way the Terps have played as of late. Maryland has shown their best side recently, beating up on mid to low tier Big Ten teams and winning by margin in their last 3 contests. Although calling any Big Ten team mid/low-tier is a murky designation in such a tough conference, I think it helps to put things into perspective in today’s game. Rutgers is a very solid team team this year. This is a better spot, at home, for the Scarlet Knights to take care of business as they approach the tournament. This game would send Rutgers over the .500 mark in Big Ten play, too. But lately these first half bets are working for me. Maryland has a ton of momentum heading into this game and I think it carries over and surprises the Scarlet Knights in the first 20 minutes. Then I think the better team shows up. Rutgers plays really well at home, in fact they’ve won 3 straight in Jersey, and their suffocating defense should hold back Maryland in the end. The Terps are not a prolific scoring team, averaging under 70 ppg this season (and against strong defenses, they’ve struggled). Maryland might win the first half, but Rutgers will surge and cover the full game.
Penn State +10.5 (-110), 2 units: This line is way too big for me. Penn State stumbles into this game and I’m sure Iowa wins, especially with how they’ve vindicated themselves on offense the last 10 games, but Penn State is too good a team to lay this many points against. This is a number for Michigan or Ohio State, not a number an inconsistent Iowa team should receive. Penn State has a very slim chance to make the NCAA Tournament but they will absolutely need to beat the Hawkeyes today to stay alive. With a schedule KenPom ranked #1 in difficulty for most of the season, the Nittany Lions won’t be intimidated. For all of Iowa’s recent success, they’re still a very flawed team. Bet on Penn State to give it their all today and cover this line.
Lehigh/Loyola MD over 140 (-115), 1.5 units: I’m going back to well and betting the over on this game again today. Yesterday’s result was pretty shocking but lightning rarely strikes twice. These are two teams who routinely eclipse 80 points and rely on their offenses to out-pace and out-score their opponents to win. Loyola’s defense stepped up yesterday in a big way, but I can’t even measure how much negative regression they’ll be due for today. I’m betting on Lehigh’s offense to recover and produce like they usually do on Sunday. Bet the over with more confidence.
Northwestern +6 (-110), 1 unit: This is another number that’s a little too big for me so I’m taking a light unit on the dog. If a favorite needs to cover 6 points in basketball, it means they need to win by more than two possessions. That won’t be easy for Wisconsin to do today. Northwestern is one of the weaker teams in the Big Ten but they’re capable of knocking off elite contenders when they play hard. We’ve seen that when they’ve faced Penn State, Purdue, Indiana, and in two games against Ohio State (one of which they surprisingly won). The Wildcats enter Sunday riding a disappointing 12 game losing streak. Not great. That being said, Northwestern is in a good spot returning home after 5 days rest. This is about as big of an opportunity as they’ll get to show out and put on a great performance. Wisconsin doesn’t necessarily need this win so this is a big let-down spot after a disappointing all-out effort at home in a big game against Iowa 3 days ago. The Wildcats are a great defensive team capable of slowing down an offense like Wisconsin. The Badgers are productive, but not prolific. Wildcats keep this one close.
