Celtics/Pelicans over 231 (-110), 2 units: The Pelicans are starting to look like the Wizards. Sporting a top 7 offensive efficiency rating led by Zion and his consistent high percentage shooting, the Pelicans are really struggling on the other end of the court. Two nights ago they faced the defensive juggernaut Suns and the total still soared over 240 points. The Celtics come into Sunday with a very healthy lineup. All key contributors will play: Kemba Walker, Jayson Tatum, and Jalen Brown; all systems go for Boston. With the way New Orleans has played on defense, sinking them to 29th overall in defensive efficiency and 24th in points allowed per game, I lean the Celtics side and I love the over. If you had bet $50 in every New Orleans game going over, you’d be up $596. Until proven otherwise, let’s ride this ATS over-streak.
Timberwolves win (+130), 1 unit: I’ll take a shot on Minnesota today. The Raptors remind me a lot of the Knicks and Minnesota split games with Toronto this past week, one of which resulted in an impressive road win. Like NY, the Raptors rely on toughness and aggressive defense to overcome their opponents. The Knicks are a very inconsistent team so it’s tough to pick spots against them, but this isn’t a bad situation for Minnesota. It’s the first of 4 straight road games and they have Milwaukee in 2 nights, so this is an opportunity for the Timberwolves to get a win against an opponent they can out-score. The Knicks are really good at shutting down guards but the Timberwolves’ offense starts and ends with Karl-Anthony Towns. Nerlens Noel is a tough matchup, rated top 5 in the NBA in defensive efficiency at the center position. While most teams tend to avoid Noel in the paint, I can see Minnesota force-feeding Towns and winning the front-court battle early and often. That’s the key to this game. Losers of now 3 in a row, Minnesota needs to get off the schneid before this road-journey begins. Expect a big game from Towns. Let’s go, Wolves!
Nets +6.5 (-110), 1.5 units and
Nets win (+210), 1 unit: I’m not sure if I understand why this line is where it is. If this was a 2, 3, or even a 4 point line it would make some sense to me. We saw how impressive the Clippers can be with that home win 2 nights ago over Utah. I called that victory so it didn’t come as much of a surprise to me. Utah was overdue for a loss and LAC deployed their best players. Despite what I’d like to admit, I like what I’ve seen from the Nets even more. Brooklyn is riding a 5 game win streak into Sunday and most of those wins have been without Kevin Durant. James Harden is playing extremely efficient basketball on the offensive end, Kyrie Irving looks comfortable facilitating and hitting clutch shots when needed, and the Nets are full of sharpshooters like Joe Harris, who can’t miss lately. If Brooklyn is able to build a lead early, the Clippers will have a tough time catching up. I think the Nets control the pace and shock LAC, just like they did to the Lakers.
Bucks -10 (-110), 1.5 units: This matchup plays right into the Bucks’ hands. The Kings are really struggling and they really really can’t play defense. Sacramento is the worst in the NBA in defensive efficiency and they allow 119.3 ppg, also a league worst. They suffer at bad team-basketball and games tend to get away from them quick. Now they have to face a Bucks team hungry to accrue more wins after a bad 5 game losing streak that just ended 2 nights ago. Milwaukee is flawed and I really don’t like them to go anywhere in the playoffs, but Giannis and his fast-paced offense should serve as too big a challenge for Sacramento. Expect Giannis to have a big game full of high-percentage shots. The Bucks win in a boring blowout.
