A nice 2-2 day yesterday with a slight uptick in units. Sam Houston St. played down to their competition and Evansville was competitive all game and nearly covered. Very nearly an undefeated day, but we carry on. Onto Tuesday’s picks:
Pacific -2.5 (-110), 1 unit: Haslametrics tells us that Pacific is one of the most erratic teams in college basketball, but I disagree. The Tigers routinely beat up on the low-tier teams in the West Coast conference, while they struggle and usually get beat-down by the best teams in the WCC (BYU, Loyola-Marymount, Gonzaga, etc.). Their road record sucks, but that’s also a misnomer. Every road game they’ve had has been against opponents that are just far better. It has little to do with home/away splits. This is a small number on a team that plays great defense and averages a healthy 5 points more than San Diego per game. San Diego doesn’t have the talent on offense to overcome. I’ll take Pacific.
UMass 1H +5 (-110), 1.5 units: I’ll take a shot on the UMass Minutemen today but just in the first half. We don’t know as much about UMass since they’ve played an abbreviated season but from what we do know, they’ve been impressive. They’re one of the better teams in college basketball on the road and Haslametrics has them ranked in the top 50 in defensive efficiency. UMass relies on a fast-pace of play and quick, easy buckets to gain an advantage on their opponent. Richmond has a legitimately effective and efficient offense but I think they could be a bit surprised by the Minutemen. I could see Richmond pulling away in the full game– they are the better team on paper– but UMass should be able to keep this close for the first 20 minutes.
Louisville -4.5 (-110), 1 unit: I have a feeling that Notre Dame’s loss against Syracuse has completely gutted the Irish. Notre Dame was winning by 17 points and in full control until the final 8 minutes. Then Syracuse out-scored the Irish 26-7 to end the game and steal a win. Yikes. Notre Dame’s offense was on full display until that point, but how can I not expect some negative regression tonight? Now the Irish, who’s chances of making the tournament are slipping away (TeamRankings gives them a 14% chance) are heading to Kentucky to take on a Louisville team that just got obliterated by UNC. The Cardinals should be ready for vengeance, especially on the defensive end of the ball where they’re usually well up to the task. The Cardinals are also 8-1 at home and beat their opponents by over 10 ppg on their court. Take Louisville.
Missouri -3.5 (-110), 1 unit: The first matchup between Ole Miss and Missouri is not reflective of what will happen tonight. Something was off with Mizzo on February 10th, but now two teams heading in opposite directions meet Tuesday night and I think the final score will look much different. The Tigers are significantly better on offense, they’re at home, and they’re seeking revenge. Don’t over-think this one. Bet Mizzo.
Georgetown +4.5 (-110), 1.5 units: How much will UConn’s James Bouknight play tonight? Dan Hurley admitted that they tried to rest Bouknight more against Villanova but it was a challenge considering the importance of the game. Do the Huskies think they can beat Georgetown without him? Probably not, but this is a good setup for the Hoyas. Georgetown comes into tonight winners of two straight at home and playing all-around great basketball– Seton Hall and Butler are not easy teams to knock off. Assuming Bouknight plays, he’ll be up against senior guard Jahvon Blair, which will prove a difficult and exhausting matchup fort UConn’s star. I like this setup for the Hoyas. Bet G-Town.
