No takes on the high noon games but there’s a ton of opportunity in the world of college hoops today! Let’s tackle some of those NCAAM Picks!
Wisconsin -4.5 (-115), 1.5 units: This is a great spot for the Badgers and I love it even more after Michigan State exposed Illinois earlier this week. The recipe seems to be pretty simple– overwhelm the big man (Cockburn) and force an inefficient Illini perimeter team to beat you. Wisconsin plays arguably the best defense in the Big 10 and I don’t see them having an issue here today at home. This is also the 3rd game this week for Illinois, while the Badgers have a had a week to rest. Expect a Badgers win by a few possessions here.
Weber State -6.5 (-110), 1 unit: This could be a let-down spot for Weber State– they shot nearly 60% from the field against Sacramento State Thursday so I don’t know if that can happen again, plus they’re playing at Sacramento for a 2nd straight night– but the Wildcats really need this game to stay in contention. They won by 9 on Thursday night so the margin for error is slim, but I think they’re desperate enough to cover this number. A 6.5 point line means more than 2 possessions and they’ll be the more motivated team.
Lean UConn -6.5 (-110): I can’t bet this game because Marquette is a very solid squad and UConn can be so up and down, but the Huskies need this game more than the Golden Eagles. UConn is right there on the bubble, the last 4 that would make the tournament, while Marquette’s chances are only 3% according to lineups.com. This game should be close but the Huskies will likely pull away. They’re even tougher at home, covering at 62.5% of the time. Expect Bouknight to step up in a big way in the 2nd half.
Lean Florida State -1.5 (-110): I want to take a shot on the Seminoles but there is a true difference between how they play at home and on the road. The Tar Heels are a different team since that win at Duke so I can’t say it excites me to step in front of them. The Seminoles are absolutely the better overall team and, in my opinion, would clobber North Carolina on a neutral court. I just think the Tar Heels may need the momentum more entering the tournament, so this is just a lean for me.
Colorado State -17.5 (-110), 1.5 units: This is a big-time talent disparity and there’s a chance the Falcons are a little fat and sassy after a nice win against New Mexico the other night. How Air Force will score or keep up with Colorado State, I don’t know. I don’t think they will. This number is too light.
Duke -5 (-110), 2 units: Duke is right on the edge of the NCAA Tournament and they’re starting to surge — shocker. They come into Saturday evening winners of 4 straight and with a lot to lose if they blow tonight’s game. Louisville is a solid team capable of playing really effective defense, see their game against Notre Dame in the second half last weekend, but I think that was more about the Irish losing their luster than the Cardinals flexing. This is an ideal spot for the Blue Devils to boost their chances and they only have to win by 2ish possessions. Take Duke.
Baylor -3.5 (-110), 2 units: Maybe this is me being square but I have to take Baylor at this number. The Bears looked human 4 days ago against Iowa State, losing for 75% of that contest. The Cyclones aren’t even a top 150 team this year so that’s not something to be proud of, but a long COVID layoff can humble a team. I respect the hell out of Kansas and think they could make waves in the tournament. They’re also in the better spot after a recent loss and now returning home. At a number this low I have to play on Baylor, though. The Bears will look at Tuesday’s win as a near loss and let-down and I expect them to flex a little tonight. One game and many practices can cure ineffective team efforts and I don’t have to tell you, Baylor has been one of the most effective teams in the nation this year, on both sides of the court. Take the Bears and don’t sweat it one bit.
