The month of February gave us a great deal of variance in the world of college hoops. At this time of year, the really solid coaches and teams tend to separate from the weaker ones, just as cream in coffee always rises to the top. I hope to take advantage of that as the tournament bubble approaches. If you don’t count the two flyer-bets we had for plus money, we were a nice 3-1 yesterday. Onto Monday’s free picks:
Stephen F. Austin -11.5 (-110), 1.5 units: The Lumberjacks blew out Central Arkansas by 26 points in their first contest. Stephen F. Austin routinely wins by great margin against weaker Southland Conference teams and Monday should be no exception– the Bears have lost their last five games by an average of nearly 17 points. This is a big mismatch, both on paper and in reality, and the Lumberjacks need a win to keep their slim chances (23% according to Lineups.com) of making the tournament alive. Bet on SF Austin!
Richmond -14.5 (-110), 1.5 units: Richmond beat Saint Joseph’s easily in their first matchup by 23 points and, just like my analysis in the game above, Richmond needs to keep winning to sustain their hopes of tournament play (29%). The Hawks had no answer for the Spiders’ offense back in January and that won’t flip today. Richmond boasts a top 25 adjusted offense according to KenPom and averages over 83 ppg. And trust me, most of that output was against defenses that are way more effective than Saint Joseph’s. Bet on Richmond and don’t look back.
Miami/Virginia under 123 (-110), 1 unit: Miami has just looked horrible lately and the Cavaliers really need a win– which usually means they flex and show out more on defense than offense. A recently very ineffective offense against an angry Virginia defense? I won’t overthink this. Give me the under.
Oklahoma -1.5 (-115), 1.5 units: Oklahoma was well ahead 2 days ago against Oklahoma State before the Cowboys turned up the pace and scoring. One stat that pops out from Saturday’s game is the disparity in rebounds. The Sooners got throttled on the boards, losing the battle 45-28 to the Cowboys. Oklahoma is a much better rebounding team and they’re much better defensively than what they showed. I expect a lower-scoring affair with a tempo more controlled by Oklahoma tonight. If they allow the pace to speed up like they did Saturday, OK State could pull away. Oklahoma has the revenge angle and can modify their approach to overcome the Cowboys. Bet Boomer-Sooner!
Colorado State -18 (-105), 1.5 units: We’ve seen this story before (actually we saw it 2 days ago). Air Force is really bad. I won’t break it down and waste your time, but the Falcons are in the bottom third of the nation in virtually every category (except luck, not shockingly). Colorado State is officially the final team that would make the NCAA Tournament if it started today, leaving their current chances of getting a bid at 22%. They need to win this game and they shellacked Air Force 72-49 on Saturday. The Rams play fast, run an effective offense and have a top 50 defense, too. I don’t see how Air Force keeps this close. The Rams win by 20+ again.
