How do you start March with a bang? How about a 4-0 night?! There are few feelings better than hitting on every one of your predictions and watching it unfold. Monday night was solid. Here’s to hoping I made your wallets fatter and to more wins, cheers!
Grizzlies 1st QTR -0.5 (-105) for 1.5 units and Grizzlies 1st HALF -0.5 (105) for 1.5 units: What a deflating loss for the Wizards on Sunday. I watched while playing scrabble with my fiancé and 15 year year old son and couldn’t believe how well Bradley Beal was playing. The guy couldn’t miss. Beal is playing some of the best offensive basketball I’ve seen in a long time. He’s a Kobe-like performer when he’s on fire and his talent can no longer be denied or overshadowed by another teammate. Unfortunately for Beal and the Wizards, they lost in the final seconds. A heroic performance like the one Beal gave Sunday night can be breathtaking for a team in good ways and bad. If they won, I probably wouldn’t be writing this angle, but they didn’t. The Grizzlies just pummeled the Rockets 2 days ago by 49 points. 4…9… POINTS. The Rockets are in complete disarray so I’m not surprised they lost, but that’s a beat-down of epic proportions. Some teams can’t even score 49 points in a half let alone win by that margin. Dominating victories like that create new-found confidence and momentum, and that’s the kind of angle I like to bet on. Memphis will come into Tuesday still riding high from that win. The Wizards were on a hellacious run before that heartbreaking loss and I think it affects them in DC tonight. For the full game, Beal and Westbrook could turn it up and give Washington a win. For the first half, I’ll be on Memphis.
Nuggets +7 (-110), 1.5 units: This is too many points for the Bucks. Now mind you, I’m not a big fan of Milwaukee so is there a chance I have some inherent bias here? Yes, there’s a chance. I don’t love the way they rely on an unreliable Giannis Antetokounmpo and I don’t think Giannis’ supporting cast is that impressive. It’s why they falter every year in the playoffs. That being said, Milwaukee played great at the end of their game against the Clippers on Sunday. While Paul George was missing shots and Kawhi was trying to hold LAC squarely on his shoulders, Giannis dominated. He even made his free throws (slow clap). How impressive for a player signed to a $225 million+ dollar contract. Anyway, the Bucks are undoubtedly feeling fat and sassy heading into Tuesday. They’ve been on a long homestand, where they love to play, and besting the Clippers had to be a high. The Denver Nuggets are an up and down team but lately, they’ve been up. Besides a late-game loss to the Wizards, who have been on quite the tear, the Nuggets beat Portland, trounced OKC at Oklahoma City, and defeated a feisty Bulls team in Chicago last night. Their injuries still alert me on defense as they continue to miss the toughness of Paul Millsap and Gary Harris, but their output on the offensive end hasn’t suffered much. If either Jokic or Jamal Murray have a dominant performance Tuesday, and I don’t think Milwaukee has the moxie to prevent at least one of the Nuggets’ stars from doing so, Denver will present problems. Take the Nuggets getting points.
Suns/Lakers under 213.5 (-110), 1 unit: It’s hard to ever bet an under in an NBA but this number is unusually low for a reason. The Lakers enter Tuesday night leading the association in defensive efficiency and holding teams to 105.6 ppg. The Suns aren’t far behind. Phoenix holds teams to 107.5 ppg and is rated #6 in adjusted defensive efficiency. One stat I like even more: both teams are in the lower half of the NBA in tempo, with Phoenix actually being the slowest team in the NBA next to the Knicks. Even if you threw away all of these suggestive statistics, I like the under most because this game should have a playoff feel. Dennis Schroder and Chris Paul with battle. Lebron and Devin Booker will scrap. Both teams have tough front court players like Montrezl Harrell and Deandre Ayton, and both teams take a lot of pride in how they play defense. I could easily see the first quarter ending around 50 points and the first half flying well below 100. That would position us well. If either team starts hot from the field, I like a live over even more. Only 1 unit out of humility, but all the support is there for an under play.
