I love the barkin’ dogs today and why the hell not?! These conference tournaments have been wild and so many underdogs seem to be the more motivated teams. Opportunity opportunity opportunity! Let’s GET IT!
Maryland +8.5 (-105), 1.5 units: I really like the way Maryland looked yesterday. It’s not about any one thing they did really well, it’s about how solid of a group they are. That was a tough spot for the Terps going up against a desperately hungry Michigan State team. The Spartans came out surging and looking like they would out-motivate and out-pace Maryland, but then the Terps took over near the end of the first half and never let off the pedal. Aggressive offense, especially from Maryland guards Wiggins and Ayala, helped force the Spartans into tough spots and they were never able to recover. Now the Terps go up against the class of the Big 10 and I have to question the Wolverines’ motivation today. They didn’t look all that pumped in their second contest against the Spartans last weekend and now they have to face a hot Maryland squad. The most impressive aspect of how the Terps play is on the defensive end. They do a fantastic job at preventing easy buckets and forcing teams into uncomfortable shot selections. And as I said in my post yesterday, Maryland was only allowing 58.8 ppg in their recent 5 game winning streak. They looked like that team Thursday and I like that heading into this early contest. Hunter Dickinson should pose some problems, as he always does, but I expect the menacing Maryland defense to slow down Michigan’s pace and force a close game.
Purdue wins (+105), 1 unit: Purdue is playing some of the most solid all around basketball of any team the last month and I don’t think Ohio State will be prepared for it. Winners of their last 5 games and 11 of their last 14 games, the Boilermakers are one of the most battle-tested teams in the country (strength of schedule ranks 11th on both KenPom and Haslametrics). The team literally doesn’t have a weakness, and their methodical pace of play has befuddled many an opponent in the Big 10. Ohio State faced a poor Minnesota team yesterday and easily won, or did they? The Buckeyes allowed the Gophers to come back a little towards the end and Minnesota nearly tied the game. Not a good look at the end. The Buckeyes will face a tremendous uptick in class today and I haven’t been awed by what I’ve seen the last few weeks. Even in wins, Ohio State isn’t an imposing unit. Purdue and Ohio State split games earlier this season; I don’t think this one will be as close. Take Purdue.
Tennessee -3 (-115), 1.5 units: The Volunteers are a match-up problem for Florida. The Gators are a good team but they turn the ball over way too much and Tennessee leads the SEC in forcing turnovers. Tennessee went down early in their last contest, only to surge and control the game with ease. Their ability to out-rebound and push around Florida in the front court was glaring. This is basically a home game for the Volunteers; Give me UT.
Georgia Tech wins (+155), 1 unit: Just got news that UVA is out of the tournament– COVID strikes again! Worst. Too bad, because I really liked the Yellow Jackets for + money here. Watch out for Georgia Tech in the ACC title game.
Georgetown wins (+140), 2 units: What’s not to like about the way Georgetown is playing lately? Patrick Ewing is playing with a chip on his shoulder in his backyard at MSG, the Hoyas are excellent from the free throw line, their bigs can control and out-rebound any team, and they have a ton of momentum. Can’t say the same about Seton Hall. The Pirates entered the Big East tournament stumbling and just escaped with an OT win against Saint John’s. That was a very solid win but I could see the Pirates underestimating Georgetown today. This is one of my favorite dogs on today’s slate, thus the play for 2 units. Take the Hoyas.
North Carolina wins (+115), 2 units: Hot damn, I really like the way the Tar Heels are playing. That incredible surge by UNC in the final 10 minutes yesterday was really impressive. That’s really hard to do against a very tough Virginia Tech team. I love stats that support my angles, and there’s plenty of them here, but I’m throwing them out the window for this contest. It’s all about the intangibles in this Friday night Semifinal. Florida State has been incredibly unpredictable to end their season. Trust me, my bankroll knows. I absolutely don’t trust them here today. North Carolina matches up really well against the Seminoles (as they showed on February 27). UNC is the tallest team in the ACC and they bullied Florida State in their last battle. North Carolina is playing with a huge chip on their shoulder, on a mission to prove they’re not a team to underestimate. I like them to win the ACC Tournament (they’ll meet Georgia Tech if they win today) and I like them to overwhelm the Seminoles again tonight. They want it more.
