Happy Friday! As we get back into the swing of NBA action, trust that my picks will gain more momentum and pour more cash money in your bank accounts. Onto the picks!
Pelicans -7.5 (-110), 1.5 units: As ugly as this bet feels after the Pelicans were completely embarrassed on their home court last night against the lowly Timberwolves, this is how you make money long-term– taking advantage of a underpriced line in a redemption spot and with a much better team. The Cavs were on a nice little run before the All-Star break but they do not have the talent of New Orleans, especially not a motivated New Orleans. The Pelicans are the picture of unpredictable and tonight should prove no different. I wouldn’t be surprised if they blew this game too, no one would, but it’s important to remember that games like yesterday aren’t the norm, even in the Pelicans’ case. Zion and Brandon Ingram and the Pelicans’ scorers are due for positive regression and it’s unlikely the Cavs will go on a 3-point tear like Minnesota. Collin Sexton is the real deal but without Kevin Love, I don’t see Cleveland keeping pace. Oh and it’s yet another good front court matchup for Zion. Bet with a facepalm on the Pelicans.
Nuggets -2.5 (-115), 2 units: The Nuggets were one of the hottest teams in the league entering the All-Star break and Memphis doesn’t exactly scare me away from taking this bet. Nikola Jokic has come into his own as the league’s most entertaining big man and Jamal Murray will be poised to contribute after the All-Star snub. As the season progressed, Murray has been more and more productive. These are both very solid teams so I expect a back and forth matchup (look for a live opportunity on Denver), but the Nuggets bring a combination of methodical pacing, a scoring unit that ranks top 5 in offensive efficiency, and a sneaky defense that allows the 7th fewest ppg in the association. This line doesn’t ask for much and Memphis is feelin’ good after a post-All-Star-break win over Washington. Denver is a different animal. The Nuggets will cover.
Wizards +4.5 (-110), 1.5 units *if Bradley Beal plays: The Sixers took advantage of a bad Chicago team (more on that in future articles–Chicago is a pretender) who couldn’t muster up the moxie to beat Philadelphia without Embiid and Simmons. Good for Philly. Embiid and Simmons are out again tonight and I don’t expect the same result. Washington returned from the break with a bad loss against Memphis and will look to redeem themselves at home tonight. Bradley Beal is questionable with knee soreness, but if he plays tonight I really like the Washington side. Washington plays at the quickest tempo in the NBA and the 76ers B team won’t be able to fend off Westbrook and Beal for all 48 minutes. I’ll be sprinkling some money-line action on this, too.
Jazz -17 (-110), 1 unit: What a line! But sadly, I think it’s dead on. Since the Christian Wood injury, the Rockets have been a different team. If you’ve read my articles historically I was high on Houston in mid-January, only to be disappointed over and over again. Now the poor, beaten up Rockets have to travel from Sacramento to Utah to face one of the league’s hottest and most complete teams. The Jazz, who undoubtedly feel disrespected on several fronts, are back from the break and looking for redemption. They’re at home, highly motivated, and significantly healthier than the Rockets (John Wall is out and Oladipo might get some “rest” time). This is a huge line but it should be a momentous blowout.
Lean, Lakers moneyline (-160): I’ll avoid this game because LAL is a little beaten up and Indiana might have some extra steam after they learned Caris LaVert is returning Sunday. Regardless, the Lakers are the better team by a wide-margin and this moneyline price is too low. The line actually makes me pause, another reason why I’m avoiding this as an official bet, but LAL should make a good parlay leg.
