Can’t seem to get over .500 recently in these NBA betting picks but trust that the pendulum will swing more in our direction. The NBA may be the best “spot play” sport in the world and the spots we look for will glare brighter the further we get from the All-Star break. Let’s tackle some Monday picks!
Hornets -3.5 (-110), 1.5 units: The spot and line favor the Hornets tonight. Charlotte is on a quiet little tear, now the winners of 3 straight and about to play their third consecutive home game. The Kings are as up and down as ever. They lost 3 out of their last 5 games, managed to beat the aimless Rockets and sneakily defeated a Lebron-less Lakers before the break. The Kings and Hornets faced off last at the end of February in a game where Charlotte won by only 1 point thanks to a last-second free throw by Malik Monk. The Hornets are a mid-tier team whose 18th rank in point differential is a relevant indicator of how they play basketball. LaMelo Ball is the talk of the town but the Hornets only beat up on inferior teams. They struggle against the big boys. Good thing the Kings are pretty horrible. Sacramento is in the middle of a long East Coast road trip and and no one in the NBA is worse at preventing their opponent from scoring (the Kings allow 120 ppg, yikes). Look for the Hornets to take advantage tonight, led my LaMelo’s dynamic passing ability. PS- the total for this game is set at a staggering 239.5, which only supports the case that it’s likely Charlotte will win by margin and cover.
Wizards +9 (-110), 1 unit: The Bucks are capable of blowing anyone out when Giannis and his crew are firing on all cylinders but it’s much less likely on the road. Milwaukee is only 6-12 ATS away from their home court. Two nights ago the Bucks outlasted the Wizards but nearly lost, and that was against a team without their star. Tonight the NBA’s scoring leader Bradley Beal returns and that can only mean good things for Washington. The Wiz-kids took the Bucks to their limit in the last contest and this line is moving down. I’ll put a unit on the dog to cover.
Knicks +8.5 (-110), 1 unit: This is a really interesting handicap. We have the NBA’s #1 offense, averaging 120.6 ppg, going up against arguably the association’s best defense. The Knicks allow only 105 ppg and are rated #5 in adjusted defensive efficiency. When they’re aggressive and turn up the volume, I don’t know if there’s a better defensive unit. It’s reasonable to assume the Nets will win this game, but I think they’re laying too many points. The Knicks are good enough and have enough pride in their city to put in some extra effort tonight. New York has had some head-scratchers, like that beat-down at San Antonio before the break and recently allowing 134 points at Milwaukee. They also haven’t faced too many contenders the past month. That aside, this isn’t a true away game and I have no question about New York’s motivation. New York runs at the slowest tempo in the NBA and I think they can stun Brooklyn’s rhythm. Give me the pumped up dog.
Clippers -1.5 (-110), 2.5 units: This is one of my favorite bets in awhile and I’d be pretty shocked if it didn’t hit. The spot and trends all favor LAC. Firstly, the last time these two teams faced the Mavericks annihilated the Clippers 124-73 in late December. That’s a 51 point margin for the accounting majors out there and it’s a rare feat in professional basketball. Of course it was the very start of the season and Kawhi didn’t play in that game, but it was at home. Is there anything worse than getting your doors blows off at your own arena?– No way that still doesn’t leave a bad taste in LAC’s collective mouth. Secondly, as if the Clippers needed more motivation, they just got obliterated last night by the Pelicans. New Orleans is maybe the NBA’s most volatile team so this isn’t completely a surprise (we actually called it in yesterday’s write-up), but that’s not a good look for LAC. The Clippers pride themselves as a buttoned-up, top tier team and championship contender. I think that’s the squad we’ll see tonight. Dallas is at home but that doesn’t matter to me. The Mavericks are feelin’ good after a nice win over their Western-Conference rival Denver Nuggets 2 nights ago. Time for a shock to their system. The Clippers are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games after a 10+ point loss. As long as Kawhi and their starters are in tonight, and all signs say they are, hammer LAC!
Warriors win (+120), 1 unit: Lebron is on and off the Laker’s injury report, Gasol and Caruso are out, and the Warriors are at home after a big win against the Jazz. The Warriors are also fully healthy. This is a good set up and spot for the Golden State to flex and it’s the reason why this line is so low– books are daring you to take the Lakers. I think this is one of those games Lebron won’t mind losing, especially when all the momentum is loaded up and in full-swing at the Chase Center. I’m on Golden State for a small upset.
