Happy Saint Patrick’s Day! It’s the week of the Irish and as a proud Irishman myself, it’s fitting I’m having such a solid week. We’re 7-4 so far in NBA bets and 7-0 (actually 11-0 if you count live betting and parlays) in my premium picks. If you want to know more about my premium plays and how to get them, reach out to me on Twitter. Onto today’s picks; let’s keep seeing GREEN!
Wizards -2.5 (-110), 2 units: I think it’s time for Washington to get off the schneid. The Kings are the worst defense in the league and after blowing a big lead against the Hornets 2 days ago (a moment where we capitalized on a big live bet for my Twitter followers), they can’t feel good traveling to DC. The Wizards are healthy and although they just got bested by 2 great teams at home (Philly, Milwaukee), they played admirably, especially against the Bucks. The Wizards are not a bad team and they’re capable of scoring at light speed– ranked #10 overall in ppg and #1 in tempo. That’s not a good combination for a Kings team that’s so incredibly porous on defense and hence can go behind by margin, fast. Few losses are as deflating as Sacramento’s let-down against Charlotte Monday and I can’t see the Kings getting overly excited for tonight’s matchup. They also have Boston and Philly around the corner on their long road trip; no bueno. Bet Washington.
Lean, Nets +1 (-110): We’re getting a reduced line with Kyrie out but I see it as a possible opportunity. The Pacers are amped having Chris LaVert back but they do not have the offensive prowess to keep up with Brooklyn, even with Kyrie and Durant out. Harden, in case you haven’t heard, is an MVP candidate and perfectly capable of guiding his team to a win. I’ll lean it only because of the motivational angle for Indiana.
Boston -8 (-105), 1.5 units: Is it corny to assume that the Celtics care about Saint Patrick’s Day? Yup. Am I corny? Yup. Do I also think this is a HUGE downgrade in class for Boston tonight? Absolutely. The Celtics were unable to eke out a win over Utah at home last night but that’s okay– most teams struggle against Utah and the Jazz were due a win. Cleveland is a good team to impose some vengeance on. Despite good play from Collin Sexton, the Cavaliers are really struggling. On a 4-game losing streak and ranked dead last in offensive efficiency and 24th in defensive efficiency according to Hollinger’s team statistics, Cleveland is no match for an angry Celtics team. Kemba Walker may be out tonight but I wonder if Boston is better without him. Every time I watch a Celtics game, he’s missing a shot. His injuries have really affected his rhythm this year. Kevin Love might play but I don’t care and don’t think the “revenge” angle against his former team is anything worth noting. The Celtics should flex on a pedestrian opponent tonight.
Spurs win (+105), 1 unit: The Spurs are young and injured (Aldridge, DeRozan), but 9 times out of 10 I’ll favor them over Chicago. The Bulls are another young team but they’re far more volatile. Did you pay attention to their game last night against OKC? Up and down, winning, letting a bad Thunder team come back, losing, winning, finally pulling ahead. That’s the story of Chicago this year. I want to believe as much as the next guy that the Bulls are exciting and relevant again but they’re not. Zach LaVine is a dynamic and explosive athlete but he’s not a pure shooter or great leader. Both of these squads are playing their 3rd game in 4 days but San Antonio got a night of rest Tuesday. There’s a huge coaching disparity in this one and I’ll go with the more consistent and more rested Spurs to edge out the home favorite.
Nuggets -6 (-110), 2 units: Charlotte enters tonight off an electric win Monday against the aforementioned Kings. Kudos to Charlotte but that was more about a really bad Sacramento team with an even worse defense. Once the shit rolls down hill, the Kings can’t do a thing to stop it. That won’t happen tonight. A closer look at the Hornets 4 game winning streak shows us that while that’s a good feat for any team, it’s not very impressive due to who they’ve beaten: Sacramento, Detroit, Minnesota, and a broken Toronto. Crack open a beer on Saint Patty’s day, Charlotte, but I’m not giving you any extra credit after those wins. An improving mid-tier team like the Hornets should handily defeat all of those teams, but they only eked by them. Now here comes Denver, at home, off 2 days rest, and Paul Millsap is in his 3rd game back. Under the leadership of court general Nikola Jokic, Denver will slow this game down and force Charlotte into mistakes. Although not a great defense, the Nuggets play with calculated execution that’s jarring for a young team like Charlotte. They’re ranked 5th in offensive efficiency because of that execution. Expect the Nuggets to cover and capitalize off the Hornets’ youth.
