This will be a shorter overall article, partially because the NBA has been pretty annoying the past two days (ha). What can ya do, but we’re still way over the pro-gambler’s goal at a healthy 57%. I’ll try my best to take my mind and eyes off of March Madness for this brief article. Trust that I’m still locked in; just annoyed! Onto Saturday’s picks:
Lean, Grizzlies -6 (-110): I don’t know what to think of last night’s abysmal performance from Memphis. The Grizzlies are a complete team but really dropped the ball on that one. Did they expect a well-coached Warriors team to come out completely lost without Steph Curry? I guess so. I expect the Grizzlies to be a little more steamed up tonight (and for Golden State to be comparatively less energetic), which should amount to a win and cover. This is a reduced line tonight so there’s value here, but I’ll just lean Memphis.
Sixers -6.5 (-105), 2 units: This is another ideal matchup for me to fade the Kings– hopefully Philly doesn’t disappoint. Sacramento is coming off two real quality wins against Washington and Boston on the road. Their road trip doesn’t get any easier Saturday evening as they travel to the Wells Fargo Arena. The Sixers are a considerably better defensive unit than the teams Sacramento bested on their little streak. Rated #2 in adjusted defensive efficiency according to Hollinger’s team stats, Philadelphia has managed to only allow 110 ppg (which is low in today’s NBA) and stands among the most aggressive and stifling squads in the association, even without Embiid and Simmons for huge parts of the season. The Kings can score, but Philly doesn’t get overwhelmed by anyone not named the Bucks or Nets. This is also an ideal spot for the Sixers. The fact that Seth Curry is out tonight isn’t great, but Philly is coming off 3 days rest and they’re at home after a disappointing loss in OT against Milwaukee. Time for the Sixers to flex. Ben Simmons is more than capable of leading the Sixers to big blowout wins (he’s been doing it throughout March) and Philly has a deep roster even without Embiid and Curry. Ordinarily, this line would be around 9 or 10, so I smell VALUE. Love Philly today.
Hornets +9.5 (-110), 1 unit: This is the kind of game that the Hornets can eke out a cover. Charlotte is a good underdog at 15-13-1 ATS on the season and after a loss they’re 12-7 ATS, even better. This is a really tough road trip for such a young team, and I’m not the biggest fan of LaMelo Ball, but I do think the youngster is a pretty good leader for his age. He has a long way to go and I hope the media-hype-train doesn’t overwhelm him or get to his head, but he’s a great facilitator and stars in a well-balanced unit. Charlotte isn’t exceptional in any one category, but they are balanced. LAC is indeed an elite team and a threat to dethrone LAL come playoff time, but the Clippers aren’t the most overwhelming team either. They play at a methodical pace (26th in tempo) and rely on lock-down defense to create margin. The Charlotte offense is bound to take some lessons from their last defeat by the Lakers and I think they show some improvements on offense tonight. Young teams tend to be impulsive and reactionary, so it’s best to take advantage of more immediate turn-around angles. If this number goes over 10 I’ll like it even more, but 9.5 feels like too much. I’ll take the Hornets to cover.
