Marching on and marching through this CRAZY tournament– 3 cheers for Sister Jean!
UCLA -4.5 (-115), 2 units: I’m not going to overanalyze the Abilene-Christian upset against Texas. We knew that Abilene-Christian can play some defense, and they showed it, but Texas had an outrageous 23 turnovers in that game. Sure, that’s where the Wildcats thrive– they cause turnovers and capitalize off fast-break opportunities better than most teams in the country– but Texas played undisciplined, chaotic basketball. They also played into Abilene-Christian’s hands with an up-tempo style of play. The Wildcats shot a horrendous 29.9% from the field and 16.7% from beyond the arc. And still, even with all their sloppy play, Texas only lost by a single point. I’m not that impressed by the Wildcats. UCLA is the perfect anecdote to Abilene’s pestering defense. The Bruins are one of the best teams in the nation at not turning over the ball. They play slow and calculated, which will annoy the excitable Wildcats, and their top 20 mid-range offense will chip away at their opponent, just like they did to BYU. UCLA is a tough team for fast-paced energy driven teams like Abilene-Christian, and the Bruins as only a 4.5 point favorite? Psh. That feels like a steal. Take UCLA with confidence.
Ohio wins (+180), Sprinkle: Sprinkle a little money on this one today and let’s keep the underdog alive in the second round. The most impressive thing about the Bobcats’ victory over Virginia was their relentlessness and ability to stay in that contest. It’s not news that the Cavaliers have one of the best defenses of the last decade. That’s no different this year, although we have seen UVA stumble a few times. But Tony Bennett is about as buttoned up and seasoned as it gets and you’d think the Cavaliers would be battle-tested enough to move on to the second round against a mid-tier Mid-American Conference team. Nope. Not only did Ohio win, but they played under par. Compared to their usual output on offense, a group that’s ranked #30 on KenPom and #51 on Haslametrics, the Bobcats didn’t play that spectacularly. They shot 42% from the field and 30% from beyond the arc, okay, but it was really eye-catching how they played in the front court. Ohio significantly out-rebounded Virginia by a count of 38-29. Creighton is a bigger team and a solid defense, but they’re certainly not better than Virginia. If Ohio can find their rhythm and convert from three-point land and create opportunities in the front court again, we could see yet another big upset today. I’ll be putting a lil dash of something on the Bobcats.
Michigan -5 (-110), 1 unit and Lean, Game Over 148 (-105): It feels like a relief to find two teams who actually played like we thought they would in the first round. LSU came into the tournament as one of the hotter teams in the country, winning 7 of their last 10 games and averaging 83 ppg in that same span. This is the offensive output we all knew they were capable of. Michigan enters today a little quiet… too quiet. The Wolverines were one of the more consistent and dominant teams in the nation leading up to March, before they blew 3 of their last 5 games to Illinois, Michigan State, and Ohio State. But like I said in Saturday’s article, I kind of like that for Michigan. Less pressure, under the radar, and locked in and focused (seemingly) to play best when it counts. The LSU Tigers have been a lightning bolt lately and I respect what they can do on offense–it’s partially why I favor the over here– but Michigan is rated top 7 on KenPom and top 9 on Haslametrics in offense and defense for a reason. The Wolverines should be able to slow down the Tigers, just enough, and use Hunter Dickinson to dominate the front court in frustrating fashion. Like we’ve seen from hyper-shooting offenses like Ohio State and Oklahoma State, good teams with exceptional defenses and big boys at the rim can really throw a wrench into their game-plans. This is that type of game. Michigan should cover and this feels like a 79-71 score to me, especially with LSU’s lackluster defense, so I’ll lean to the over.
Florida State -1 (-110), 3 units: This is a rare 3 unit play for me. Hear me out. When I knew this matchup between Colorado and Florida State was coming, I figured the line would be around 6 in favor of the Seminoles, but oh how recency-bias rattles our good senses. Let me make this clear– in sports betting, even if Florida State blows this and we lose a big bet, this is the RIGHT SIDE. If this was in regular season play, with the Buffaloes trudging through the Pac-12 and Florida State flexing its muscles in the ACC, this line would not be at -1 or where we see it now around -1.5 or -2. The Seminoles are easily the tallest, longest, and most talented team that Colorado has seen this year. The Pac-12, as we’re learning, may be better than people think. As I write this, Oregon and Oregon State and USC and Colorado are all still in the tournament. The Pac-12 has yet to lose in the postseason. We’re all impressed, and I’m not trying to disrespect the victory Colorado had against Georgetown in the first round game, nor am I discounting their success in the Pac-12. I just think there are levels here and we have to respect our research and analysis as well as those brighter than us at Haslametrics and KenPom etc. This is a unique spot where we get a discounted price to take a Seminoles team that many have in their Final Four. Check this out– in their first tournament game against UNC Greensboro, Florida State shot 0% from beyond the arc. That’s right, they went 0/9. They also committed 5 more turnovers and had 4 less steals, yet the Seminoles still beat a good Spartans’ team by 10 points. Florida State controls the front court, they’re an excellent shooting team, and Haslametrics rates their defense #1 in the nation at preventing field goal opportunities; Do you think Colorado will make 9 three-pointers in the first half against this team? I don’t. And on the flip side, the Seminoles are due for some significant positive regression from distance today. I know this tournament is full of surprises, but this is how you win money long-term and I’d take this bet 99 times out of 100. Go Noles.
Alabama -5.5 (-110), 1 unit and under 138.5 (-110), 1.5 units: This is a really tough game to bet. I really, really want to favor Maryland for my local friends (it’s also my fiancé’s alma mater) and because it’s a great story, but I find myself looking at the other side. Whenever I trust my better senses, they’re usually right. It’s reasonable to say that Maryland is the best defense Alabama has faced all season. Arkansas is good, for sure, but forgive me if I’m more impressed by what the Terps bring to the table. Big 10 Defensive Player of the Year Darryl Morsell played his tail off against the Huskies in the first round. The stats won’t show how aggressive and efficient he was on defense but he’s the anchor of the Terps’ and the centerpiece of a defense that seems to be improving every week. Holding a really good UConn team to only 54 points is not easy. Holding the Crimson Tide to 54 points is damn-near impossible. Alabama also has the #1 defense in the country, according to KenPom. While I think Maryland won’t be as shook by their ability after playing a full season in the Big 10, Alabama is a more complete team. What really scares me for the Terps is the way Alabama plays with tempo; I think it’s the difference Monday night. Rated the 9th fastest team in the country, the Crimson Tide know how to score in bunches and they’re one of the best in college hoops at utilizing fast-break opportunities. Maryland is young and athletic but if they don’t stay extremely disciplined on defense, this game could get out of hand. These two bets act as a natural hedge– if Maryland can stay within game’s reach, it’ll be because they’re limiting the Crimson Tide, but Alabama will fare well if they can assert their game-speed and offensive talent on the Terps. With a line under 2 possessions, I expect both bets to hit.
