Colorado vs Florida State -1.5 O/U 140
Is the Pac 12 underrated this year? With Colorado’s blowout win over Georgetown and UCLAs run to 32 it might seem that way. One thing for sure is that Florida State is the best team in the ACC but what does that also mean? Kenpom has Colorado 10th in the nation while Florida State is ranked 16? Why is that? Well part of the reason was the Pac 12s recent success and the other part of that reason is Colorado looking great in their first game. Why is the spread giving Florida State a slight favorite roll? I think it is because people know what they know and Florida State is a much bigger basketball name than Colorado. I think that part of the reason that this spread isn’t bigger is that Colorado handled another very tall team in USC this year twice. Florida State has had a few bad losses this year but they are at least healthy in this spot and they know how to play fast. Part of the reason that Colorado’s success last game is that they shot 64% from three point land. I really can’t see that happening again against a taller team like the Semis. Florida State ranks 26th in defensive effective FG% while Colorado ranks 61st. In a game like this, I can’t see the Seminoles losing here after what happened to them in the ACC tournament. Florida State shoots the ball better at 54.3% effective FG and Colorado is at 52.8% effective FG. Gonna take the Semis.
Florida State -1.5 – 2 stars
Maryland vs Alabama -6 O/U 138.5
What did Maryland do to deserve to be a 6 point dog against Alabama here? Didn’t beating UCONN who was everyone’s darling (including my own) change the market’s mind on this? Maryland isn’t getting a ton of love here also due to the fact that they are 6-9 as a dog this year. For me, there are two things that I look at here in this matchup. Who had the tougher conference and who is the better shooting team? Well I think Maryland checks both of those boxes. Maryland shoots 52.8% effective FG to Alabama’s 51.3%. Alabama will find out that Maryland can pay a little defense as well from time to time. I am not saying that Alabama will necissarily lose this game, I am saying that this spread is a few points 2 high. I think Alabama -3.5 points would be the line that I would set.
Maryland +6 – 3 stars and sprinkle
