It’s another great week for us here at the OddsBreakers as I’ve gone 9-5 this week, though it feels like I’ve done even better. Premium members hit on a +650 parlay last night and we probably should have had a win with Indiana at -6, who stuttered at the end to only win by 5. Regardless, the association is in full focus and we head to Thursday, although I must say I don’t love today’s games quite as much. Remember, part of successful long-term sports betting is fading games you don’t feel right about. It’s just like a stock– you wouldn’t double-down on a commodity that’s been on the rise for 3 weeks and could level out or devolve any second. Bet methodically. That being said, I absolutely SHOULD HAVE put a play on Toronto last night. Okay this is turning into a rant. Onto the picks!
Blazers/Heat over 218.5 (-110), 1.5 units and Blazers +3 (-105), 1 unit: It’s hard to pick a side in this one. Both the Heat and Blazers are on their own cold streaks. Miami was starting to look real feisty again, kind of like the team we knew and grew to love in last year’s NBA Finals, but injuries and a string of tough competition has Miami now losers of 4 straight. Those two straight losses at home against Indiana must have particularly stung since their Eastern Conference rival could very well be a playoff contender here soon. Before those recent losses, Miami won 11 of 12 games through February and March. The Blazers just dropped 2 games in a row at home, one to the Mavericks and one to the Nets, which aren’t bad losses but Portland’s dependable offense has been anything but recently. Portland still sits comfortably at 6th in the Western Conference (and yes, playoff motivation is something we have to start to consider) but they’ll have to hope for some positive regression on offense to get back on the mend. Portland can’t exactly count on a defense that ranks 29th in adjusted efficiency on Hollinger’s NBA ratings (ESPN). This feels like a great spot to take an over. Miami plays at a methodical pace and they’re among the lowest scoring teams in the NBA, but Portland will come out aggressive tonight. The Blazers know that if they want to get off the schneid they have to overwhelm the Heat with their high-percentage shooting and dimes from beyond the arc. Insert Damian Lillard. I really like the Blazers’ star to have a big game. The player-prop for his total points is set at 29.5– I’d go over. The Heat could win this game but they’re still contending with injuries and I expect the Portland offense to play fired up and push this total over tonight. I’ll also put 1 unit on the Blazers, a team that’s 8-4 ATS as away underdogs. Cha ching!
Lean, Knicks -3 (-110): This is not a play for me, but the Knicks were really impressive against the Wizards 2 nights ago. I called it and we all cashed on it Tuesday night, by the way. The Knicks were stifling on defense, forcing Washington into difficult shots and a ton of turnovers, and they took full advantage of the Wizards’ porous front court (Randle dropped 37 points, another angle we predicted). Out of respect for Washington in a double-header, I’ll only lean New York, but I don’t see why it wouldn’t happen again.
Spurs +6.5 (-110), 1 unit: Will the Clippers stomp the Spurs for a second straight night in San Antonio? Meh. Maybe. Will Kawhi Leonard even play? I haven’t heard anything yet but this feels like an optimal spot for a late-breaking announcement that Kawhi is sitting out to “rest,” and probably 5 minutes before tip-off as always (eye roll). The long-time Spur was excellent last night. Kawhi went 9/12 from the field and dropped 25 points and 7 rebounds on the Spurs. Paul George added another 17, Morris bucketed 20, and LAC completely stymied San Antonio with an aggressive and disciplined defensive effort. LAC’s defensive ratings (Hollinger has them at 13th overall) are a bit skewed, too. This is easily a top 10 defense when everyone’s healthy and playing. The Clippers have elite defenders at every position and if they’re shooting well, 20-30 point wins will come easy. That being said, I think the pendulum swings back Thursday night. San Antonio turned the ball over 16 times Wednesday and only shot 32% from beyond the arc. They also got out-rebounded and fouled more than LAC. It’s likely the Clippers win again, especially if all of their stars play, but Greg Popovich and the Spurs are a proud bunch, albeit a young proud bunch, and I expect them to play gritty in the second leg of a back-to-back. San Antonio is also in the middle of a 7 game home stretch while the Clippers have to turn around and face Philly in two days, so they could be looking over their shoulder. Better spot, second game back, I’ll take a light unit on the Spurs.
Lakers under 105 points (-115), 1.5 units: The 76ers defense is for real. Even without Embiid, the way Philly locked down the Warriors in the 4th quarter Tuesday night was really impressive. Golden State was on a run– they outscored the Sixers 40-21 in the 3rd quarter and went ahead by 5 entering the 4th. Then, with Simmons back in the game, Philly completely turned the game around and it started with their defense. Allowing only 13 points in the 4th quarter and forcing turnovers and shot-clock violations throughout, the Warriors lost their momentum and ended up losing by 10 points (which cashed another Philly/under parlay for us). Now the Sixers travel to LA for 2 games against the city’s elite programs– LAL Thursday and then LAC on Saturday. I’ll look at a full game under for their game against LAC, but this feels like a good team under tonight. The Lakers are really struggling since Lebron left and somehow they’ll have to find a way to accumulate some wins with the OG down for at least a few weeks. Like I said in my article Tuesday, what you may not know about Lebron is that not only was he leading his team in points, but he led the Lakers in rebounds and assists, too. He was the integral piece to their offensive efficiency and it’s showing. The Lakers have averaged 99.6 ppg in their last 3 contests and Philadelphia’s 2nd ranked defense probably isn’t going to help. Furthermore, LAL is in the bottom half of the NBA in tempo; unfortunately that plays right into the hands of Philly. I like the total to fly under 216 but I like LAL’s total to go under even more. Eclipsing 25 points a quarter will be a tall task for the Lebron-less Lakers.
