Back in action! After a nice 15-10 start to my Tournament bets, we head to Saturday for the first day of Sweet 16 games. I’ll write-up a separate article for Sunday’s games. I can’t wait for more college hoopin’– let’s go!
Loyola-Chicago -6.5 (-115), 2 units: For those who already knew how good the Ramblers are, their showing so far in the tournament comes as no surprise. Loyola-Chicago may have gotten the toughest draw of any team still left. Getting an 8 seed (which was obviously very wrong) and having to go through the Midwest Region, where red-hot Georgia Tech and Illinois were looming, was not the fate that Loyola had pictured. But it hasn’t mattered. The Ramblers took care of Georgia Tech and Illinois in consecutive contests and neither of those wins were fluky. They were clearly the better team. Look at the game-flow chart on their game against the Illini– they controlled all 40 minutes. The Ramblers sit at #9 overall on KenPom and 11th on Haslametrics but it’s hard to account for all the reasons why they’re so good. Cameron Krutwig is surely one of those reasons. The crafty senior is college basketball’s Nikola Jokic, equipped with a natural, keen ability to facilitate his comrades and command the court. He has a beautiful shot, doesn’t make many mistakes, and plays with a fire that’s hard to measure. Maybe it’s the small-school attitude that sends Krutwig over the edge. In a game where athleticism and pure shooting ability get all the praise, Krutwig’s basketball IQ and leadership are what separate him from the herd. And he’s the defining factor for why I think the Ramblers can cover this line. Make no mistake about it, Oregon State is an impressive team and they could very well dethrone the Ramblers. Equally impressive was their win over Oklahoma State, maybe the other sharp-darling not named Illinois to win it all, in another game where we saw the underdog stay in the lead from start to finish. Oregon State has shot well and played solid defense, but I think their win over the Cowboys was a tad fluky. Oklahoma State missed a ton of easy shots and Cade Cunningham seemed unready for the big moment. He needed to turn it up in the second half and never really did; he never showed any moxie or fire either. The Beavers won’t be able to shoot the way they did against Oklahoma State and get away with it against Loyola. The Ramblers’ defense is very stout and they’re also extremely effective on offense. I think this game could be close but I expect the Ramblers to take control and limit whatever steam Oregon State has gained. This sat at 7 at one point so this feels like a little win already for me. I’m on Sister Jean’s squad once again!
Villanova +7.5 (-105), 1.5 units: A ton of people I listen to and respect love Baylor in this game and I get it. The Wildcats haven’t exactly been challenged in the tournament thus far and Baylor is a true titan of the postseason, 2nd only to Gonzaga as a favorite to win it all. The Bears will challenge Villanova on both sides of the court and it may prove daunting for the underdog to keep pace. I understand all that, but hear me out here. Let’s look at a few intangibles, which are obviously something many of us have overlooked in a tournament full of surprises. There’s a perception out there, recency bias perhaps, that Jay Wright isn’t a great ATS coach in March. The reality is Villanova hasn’t been a fantastic favorite, but they’re an underdog Saturday and that spells a different story. Sure, they lost 2 years ago in the tournament and didn’t cover as an underdog to Purdue, but the Wildcats are 7-4 ATS overall dating back to 2005 (under Jay Wright). They’re also 4-2 ATS in Sweet 16 games under Wright. And don’t you think the Wildcats will have a little chip on their shoulder heading into this? Baylor is Baylor and at times it seemed glaring that this would be the Bears’ year, but Villanova has won the title twice in the last 5 years. Their coaches have been here. Some of their seniors have been here. The Gillespie injury hurts, but the Wildcats have played really well without him. They’re averaging 50% from the field in their first two bracket games and they’ve looked very stoic and disciplined, only turning the ball over 6 times in each game. This is obviously a huge difference in class in their opponent tonight, but Villanova presents as a buttoned up (like their coach) program that won’t falter under the bright lights. I like siding with a seasoned program as an underdog in big match-ups like this (i.e. the Patriots, Lakers, the Dodgers, etc.), even if it’s not as sexy. I might just sprinkle some ML action on this, too.
Houston -6.5 (-110), 2 units: Jim Boehiem’s Orangemen face off in the Saturday finale against the Houston Cougars in what should be a pretty good game. According to ShotQuality, Houston ranks first in terms of “quality in defense” on 3-point shots and I think that’s really going to matter on Saturday. A big thank you for that little tidbit via the recent OddsBreakers podcast with Simon Gerszberg. Syracuse has survived so far thanks to some really tough defensive play, especially from their big boys in the front court, and by some really exceptional shooting. Take the last game as an example. The Orangemen shot 52% from the field and 45% from beyond the arc against West Virginia. That’s pretty damn impressive. West Virginia is known for their blitzkrieg attack on offense but they play defense at a rather pedestrian level. We knew that heading into tournament play and it’s why the Mountaineers weren’t able to really shine as an elite team all year. Houston’s defense cannot be compared to the Mountaineers. KenPom ranks the Cougars defense 11th while Haslametrics has them at 7th overall. And also unlike West Virginia, Houston (ranked near the bottom of the nation in pace) will slow down this game and gnaw away at the Syracuse front and back courts. Hell, West Virginia played into the hands of the Orangemen with their style of play. Not Houston. I think the Cougars match up really well here. It’s an unfortunate draw for the Orangemen because I think they could upset a lot of teams that are still in it. Houston just isn’t one of them. I’ll bet Houston to cover for 2 units.
