Florida State vs Michigan -2.5 O/U 144.5
I have actually been looking forward to this matchup here and this game is part of the reason that I have Florida State in my final 4. I do not like how Michigan finished the season losing 3 of their last 5 games. Their style of basketball is great, it’s controlled and they have playmakers, but they haven’t faced a team with this height and this is where I think that Hunter Dickenson and Franz Waggoner could struggle getting those high percentage shots. Florida State is a fast paced team who turns the ball over at a big clip but Michigan isn’t a team that really forces many turnovers only ranking 337th on defense forcing only about 14% of possessions to turn. Another thing that makes me like Florida State here is the fact that they can shoot the ball about as well as Michigan and they rebound about the same as well. The Wolverine’s are without their senior leader in Isaiah Livers which really could affect them in a game like this. Leonard Hamilton is 7-2 ATS as a dog with 5 outright wins in the NCAA tournament. I have close to a pickem at 71-71 here.
Creighton vs Gonzaga -13.5 O/U 158.5
- Is there anything bad about Gonzaga? This is the most efficient team that I have seen at least since the 2017 Villanova Wildcats. The knock on them is always that they haven’t played a strong schedule. Well being that their games have mainly been statistically final, we really do not know the true ceiling of this team.
- One thing that I do know is that Creighton is better than all of the teams that they have faced this year minus maybe Iowa and that game went to 187 points. Gonzaga ranks 2nd and seconds per possession and Creighton ranks 42nd at 16.1 seconds per possession. Gonzaga is scoring 90+ points here for sure. If Creighton gets 70 this game is going over.
- I have Gonzaga winning 91-76
- Play the over 158 – 3 stars
UCLA vs Alabama -6.5 O/U 145
- Who is the real UCLA? The team that lost 4 games in a row before the tournament or an actual legit team who could make it to the elite 8? I think the answer is somewhere in the middle.
- What would this line be 1 week ago is the question? 7? 8? 10 points? 2 weeks ago? 11?12?
- UCLA lost a few key players throughout the season and some younger guys really stepped up.
- UCLA had a pretty easy road to get to the sweet 16 getting a bad Michigan State team, then an overrated BYU team, then Abilene Christian instead of Texas.
- I have Alabama winning 76-69
Lean Alabama -6.5
