Houston vs Baylor -5.5 O/U 134
This will be a wonderful matchup and I can’t wait to see it go down. This is a pretty sizable spread for a 1 facing a 2 and I think there might be some narrative problems here with this game. Houston has only faced double digit seeds so far to get to the final 4. This has never happened before. Why should that matter? Houston plays in the AAC is a narrative that I bought into some but they also smacked around some decent teams in the non-conference and they handled Memphis twice who won the NIT tournament and is better than half of the NCAA tournament teams themselves. Baylor is looked at as having a great defense and I think there are great things about it and bad things about it. Baylor ranks only 120th in opponent effective FG%. The fact that their defense ranks 3rd in turning the ball over, makes them look a little better than they might be. I am concerned that the refs could be calling fouls on them when they apply their great ball pressure. One question that I have is, how different would that Arkansas game have looked if their best player JD Notae hadn’t fouled out with 14 minutes left in the game? Houston isn’t a great shooting team by any means, but they do rank number 1 in opponent effective FG% at 43.1. Some of that is playing in the AAC but we have seen them shut teams completely down in this tournament. The Bears plays fast and they have a better shooting percentage than the Cougars at 48.6 to 43.7%. Neither team is all that tall but Houston does lead Baylor in rebounding the ball 40.9 top 36 per game. I think this spread is a bit high and I actually trust Quentin Grimes to keep this game close. I am very curious to see Houston finally playing as a dog here. They have been a dog only once all year in their third game vs Texas Tech by +3 points. They won by double digits that game. I think the correct line on this game is 3. I have this game Baylor winning 71-68 so I’ll grab the points here at 5 and might buy some back at the half if the score permits it.
Houston +5.5 – 2 stars and lean over
UCLA vs Gonzaga -14 O/U 145
Before I dig into UCLA too much, I want to give some big props to Coach Mick Cronin for slowing the game down vs Michigan and doing what it takes to win the game. There was only 59 possessions in this game which is really what offensively inferior teams need to do to win. In saying that, it sure helped that one of Michigan’s best players in Franz Wagner (formerly Franz Vagner but he lost that status) went 1-10 from the field and 0-4 from 3. You can’t beat anyone playing like that. We also have to give credit to Johnny Juzang and Tyger Campbell for playing so well in these last few games. Lots of people are looking at the USC/Gonzaga game but I have to think that UCLA has to start out better than they did. USC couldn’t hit open layups and 2 foot shots and quickly lost that game in the first 6 minutes. If I’m coach Mick Cronin, I am reminding my team all week that they are 14 point dogs here.
This spread is the largest spread in Final 4 history but can we make a spread big enough for the Zags here? Gonzaga is like Alabama in football. They have an extra gear that they can apply if needed. They seem to do everything that they want to do. They seem to intimidate teams in many ways and they also seem to score whenever and however they need to. I think that it is safe to say that UCLA will have to score over 51 points to beat Gonzaga? Looking at UCLA’s trendline on Adjusted defense and opponent FG%, it skyrockets up since the tournament started but how much of that is luck and how much of that is real defense is the question. UCLAs trendline on offense has been close to the same but they have at least faced some tougher defensive teams. Gonzaga has both a good offense and a good defense and I trust Gonzaga to have the confidence to come out of the gate firing. I have this game Gonzaga winning 81-67 but I think in-game might be the best way to approach this game. I would like the over more if I knew that UCLA would not be getting blown out of the stadium and the Zags slowing it down knowing they have 1 more game on deck. I think that the safest bet is the Zags first half team total over 42 ish. That way you know that they can take time at the end if need be.
Gonzaga 1st half team total over 38 ish – 2.5 star premium and lean over 145
