For as long as January is, March feels all the more momentous and arduous. But here we are on the 31st day with the NCAA Tournament nearly over and the MLB season just 1 day away. The Northeast is warming up and after a 2-2 night, let’s hope these NBA picks do the same. I’ve always loved a hump day.
Blazers -6.5 (-110), 2 units: This is a lot of points to lay on the 4th straight road game for Portland but that’s not enough reason for me not to do it. This line is also growing by the second (I see it at -7.5 at some spots now). The Blazers have enjoyed their time away from home, winning 3 straight road games against Miami, Orlando, and Toronto. The final game before their triumphant return to Portland is against a lowly Detroit team who just eked out a rare win against the Raptors. Just another clumsy game for Toronto I suppose, but the Pistons bench really showed up in that game. They were responsible for 65 of their 118 points and the Pistons led all but a few seconds in the 1st quarter. Pretty impressive, but don’t expect it to repeat tonight. Detroit has back to back games starting Wednesday (Washington visits tomorrow), which means they’ll have two games trying to fend off offenses that like to boat-race their opponents. Portland scores the 8th most points per game and they boast a 6th best offensive efficiency rating on Hollinger’s team metrics. Detroit is in the bottom 5 in both those categories. Portland has had their struggles on defense but not against opponents as ineffective as Detroit. The Pistons won’t be able to keep up. I think Dame has a big game and this is a double-digit win.
Miami wins (-125), 1.25 units and Heat/Pacers under 218 (-110), 1 unit: I’m approaching this with caution but I’ll put a little more than 1 unit on this game for one simple reason: Miami really wants this. Nothing is more motivating than getting your ass kicked twice on your home floor and then you get a revenge-game shortly thereafter at your opponent’s backyard. That’s exactly what we’ll see Wednesday night between the Heat and Pacers. Just 10 days ago, the Pacers successfully knocked off the Heat twice in Miami– once by an overwhelming effort on offense and once in a grinding OT win with a little flex from Indiana’s defense. The Pacers, as we’ve said so many times here, are an extremely well-balanced team that can catch even the best teams if they’re asleep at the wheel. They play above-average offense and solid defense and don’t make many mistakes. Miami is built very similarly. The Heat just displayed one of their better games of the season against the Knicks two nights ago, holding New York to only 88 points. That’s a really amazing feat in today’s NBA. I don’t love that Miami has to turn around and face Golden State tomorrow, but they want this game more than Indiana. I expect an aggressive, gritty game from Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler tonight that will mean a below-average output from Indiana and a win for Miami. They’re too battle-tested to let Indiana win 3 times in a row.
Celtics win (-105), 1 unit *if Jaylen Brown plays: I get why people are afraid to bet Boston (I am, too). The Celtics continue to be an up and down program. But for all the talk about Dallas being on the rise, they’re pretty damn up and down, too. The Mavericks stutter often against great opponents and this isn’t an easy spot. Dallas is in the middle of a grueling road stretch while Boston is finally back at home and has a bunch of easy matchups ahead. Jaylen Brown and Romeo Langford have just been upgraded to questionable, which usually means they’ll play, but watch for updates until right before tip-off. Boston is just coming off a bad loss and if the Celtics are healthy and at home, they can easily snag a win here. They need one.
Knicks -4 (-105), 1 unit: The Knicks are a considerably better team than the Timberwolves, period. I like this more after the Knicks suffered a hard loss against the Heat just two nights ago, a game where Miami out-muscled and played better defense than one of the best in the association. No doubt– the Knicks didn’t like that. No one allows less points than New York and we’ve seen what they can do on offense when they go up against bad defenses like Minnesota. In recent history, NY dropped 131 on the Wizards, 119 on OKC, 140 on Sacramento and 123 on Atlanta. The Knicks should be motivated to get back to their winning ways and know they need to take advantage of easier games like this as they battle for a playoff berth in May. This line is sneaky at just 4 so I’m approaching with caution, but I don’t see the Knicks losing this game. At a line just barely over a one-possession lead, I have to take New York.
Kings/Spurs under 231 (-110), 2 units: I’ll be brief here. These two squads faced 2 nights ago and although San Antonio just lost LeMarcus Aldridge and they’re dealing with injuries, it isn’t like them to allow 132 points to any team. The Kings were on fire Monday night, shooting 56% from the field and a ridiculous 50% from beyond the arc. San Antonio also shot the ball really well at 50% from the field. Lightning rarely strikes twice in any sport and I trust Coach Popovich to formulate a better defensive game-plan in this one. The Spurs are 12th overall in defensive efficiency and 11th best in the NBA at points allowed per game. Expect some negative scoring regression and the under to hit.
Bucks -8.5 (-110), 2 units: This line keeps moving up and up and it’s obvious why. The Bucks hadn’t lost a game since the All-Star break and were looking scarier than ever. While Kyrie sat out multiple games and Durant still hasn’t returned and Philly lost Embiid, Milwaukee was humming as a unit and Giannis, while playing through some injuries, was dominant as a scorer and facilitator. The Bucks won 8 games in a row during that span and seemed unbeatable. Then in 3 of their most recent games they hit a lull, losing to Boston, New York, and to LAC in ugly fashion. If you’ve been a fan of my articles you know that I’m a little less surprised by that than most– I don’t love the Bucks– but some of those losses aren’t what they seem. Giannis wasn’t himself against Boston. The Clippers have been on a tear and hit 19 three-pointers against Milwaukee. And the Knicks, well, the Knicks catch a lot of teams by surprise. Regardless, this is a showcase game tonight against the 2020 NBA Champions and Milwaukee will be up for the task. It’s the 2nd leg of a long road trip for the Bucks but all of their key players are healthy. LAL hits the road after tonight to face far easier competition, so I could see them bow-down a little in this spot. The Bucks are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings against the Lakers and they need this game to get out of their rut. I lean the under in this game, too (the total is set at 222), but I can see the Bucks using their blitzing downcourt attack and trying to overwhelm LAL’s #1 rated defense. This is Milwaukee’s game to make a statement. Bet the Bucks.
