No, this isn’t an April Fool’s Day joke– I do bet baseball and love it just as much as basketball (though maybe not as much as football). After all the literal madness that was March with the NCAA Tournament and NBA action in full swing, MLB is a big sweet breath of fresh air. It’s super important to tread carefully at the beginning of the MLB season, just like any sport. That being said, I’ll have games I write on and bet on every day. Let’s get it rolling in my first MLB article! Opening Day, baby!
Blue Jays (+155), 1 unit: Let’s go! This is probably the game I’m most excited about on Opening Day and it’s the very first game on the slate! The new-look Toronto Blue Jays, with a ton of young-gun acquisitions, are anxious to hit the field and take on their Eastern Division, American League rivals– the mighty New York Yankees. Can the Yankees stay healthy this year? Time will tell. The question today: which pitcher will have a more dominant performance at the mound– New York’s Gerrit Cole, who had a fantastic first year with his new squad, or Hyun-Jin Ryu, the seasoned ace who spent so many years with the Dodgers and had an outstanding 2020 in Toronto. Sporting a 2.69 ERA and 1.15 WHIP last year, Ryu does a fantastic job at preventing home-runs, allowing only 8 total in 2020. Among aces, Gerrit Cole was near the bottom of that list, allowing 18 homers last season. I think that’s the difference today. We know how well the Blue Jays can rock the bat. The total in this game is set at 7.5 with extra juice, which tells me that books expect some big hits and at least a few runners on base. I think Toronto scores the upset behind a solid performance from Ryu and a few slugs from Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and company. The Blue Jays are amped to begin the season and the Yankees always have more pressure to win, especially on opening day. If only George Springer was healthy, we might get a real glimpse at Toronto’s hitting potential. Regardless, I like the upset.
Parlay- Cleveland wins and DET/CLE under 7.5, 1 unit to win 1.82 units: I don’t love that the Indians gave up Carlos Carrasco and I can’t love what they gave away on offense, but Cleveland is a team that depends on really solid pitching and coaching and that’ll be the difference in their opener. The Indians have a lot to figure out all season but they still have tremendous upside. This is a nice setup for them against a Detroit team that should be rather abysmal this year. Boyd is a solid enough ace and should hold this new-look, inexperienced Cleveland offense at bay at least for the first 5 innings. Detroit’s issues are on offense and, HELLO– here comes Shane Bieber to open their season. After a spectacular 2020, Bieber is unquestionably one of the most elite pitchers in baseball, becoming the first starting pitcher in modern history with back-to-back 13-plus-strikeout games to open a season, Bieber K’d eight more in his last outing to bring his strikeout total to 35, third-most for a pitcher through his first three starts (MLB.com). The breakout ace led the MLB with an ERA of 1.63 and had a very solid .87 WHIP. I think he’ll hold the Indians squarely on his shoulders for the beginning of the 2021 season, just like last year, and this is a damn good spot for the visitor to take advantage. I’ll take the under for what I think are two equally weak offenses and a win for “The Land.”
Dodgers/Rockies over 11 (-110), 1.5 units: The Coors-Field angle is back and what a great opening matchup to capitalize as the defending World Series champs travel to Denver in the 4:05 EST slot. Kershaw is still dominant but I’m not sure LAD wants to overuse their ace at the onset of the regular season. German Marquez has had brilliant moments in his career but he was inconsistent in 2020, displaying a 3.75 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP. Of course it’s hard to prevent hits when half of your games are at Coors Field but if his showing in the Cactus and Grapefruit Leagues are any indication, Marquez will struggle today. Colorado’s ace allowed 10 runs in his last 3 exhibition games and has shown some real issues with command. The Rockies should be able to get some hits on Kershaw– even Clayton has struggled at Coors– but I think LAD could score 10 runs in this contest. Love the over.
Other Leans I like: Twins (-110), Braves (+103), Reds -1.5 (+175), Marlins (+125)
