Another nice night in the NBA lands us at 2-0 overall. Good thing I only leaned those other 2 sides. It’s one thing to win a bet, it’s another thing to be dead-on in your analysis and handicap and that’s how I felt last night watching LeMarcus Aldridge starting for the Nets. He was an instant difference-maker, as I predicted, and the Hornets were no match for Brooklyn’s balanced attack. If they can keep on incorporating Aldridge into their game-plan, the sky is the limit for the Nets. Onto Friday’s picks!
Warriors +4.5 (-115), 1 unit and GS/TOR under 221.5 (-110), 1.5 units: Maybe this is a trap but good Lord, what’s wrong with the Raptors right now? Injuries haven’t helped but Toronto is showing a real lack of chemistry and leadership and it’s really starting to throw the entire unit into disarray. Lowry is out tonight and talks of him being swept up by the Heat in free agency are still looming. Golden State will be without Curry but the Warriors have showed they can really flex on defense and produce enough on offense through their young stars to get a win. If you’re giving me 4.5 points on one of the most well-coached and talented young teams in the NBA against THIS Raptors unit (who’s now lost 4 straight), I have to take it. I also like the under. Both of these teams have scored well below their season average in their last few contests and with all the injuries and uncertainty, defense should win the day.
Pacers -4.5 (-110), 1.5 units: Well we saw that loss coming 2 nights ago for Indiana. The Heat were bested by the Pacers twice at their own home court so when they found themselves down again in the 2nd half, the Heat clamped down on defense and pulled ahead. That’s an intangible that’s hard to measure but one that wins and covers in so many games; it also proves you’re an elite team. Miami has been inconsistent this year but just like we saw in the 2020 playoffs, they’re battled tested, tough, and capable of knocking off any team when the chips are down. Indiana isn’t there yet but this is a good spot for the Pacers to land a win. The Hornets just got squashed last night by the Nets, we cashed that bet, and now have to turn around and face an Indiana team that’s pissed off at home and looking for some redemption. The Hornets are a good team but now that they have a more volatile Terry Rozier at the helm, they just don’t have enough skilled facilitators and veteran leadership to win consistently. This is another bad spot for them on a long road trip before they have to face the Celtics Sunday and then the Bucks soon thereafter next week. Indiana travels to San Antonio tomorrow but I think this game means more to them and they snag a win and cover. Charlotte must be tired. Look to fade the Pacers tomorrow.
Grizzlies -6.5 (-110), 2 units: This is a perfect setup for Memphis. All the Grizzlies do is beat up on bad or average teams and lose handily to the elite. Fresh off yet another defeat at the hands of the Western Conference elite Jazz, which PS was their 3rd loss in less than a week to Utah (and that last one was close, so that must really hurt), Memphis is no doubt out for blood tonight and hungry for a big win. Well the basketball gods are giving them a treat. The last placed Minnesota Timberwolves visit Memphis ripe off a rare win against the New York Knicks, who are struggling to play consistent basketball and dealing with a bunch of injuries. Minnesota stayed the course and eked out a 1 point victory over New York on Wednesday. After tonight they’ll travel to Philadelphia tomorrow as their new road trip only gets more brutal. Minnesota and Memphis are both top 7 in pace, but unfortunately the Grizzlies are considerably better on offense and lightyears ahead of the Timberwolves on defense. Posting one of the worst point differentials in the NBA (only the Cavs are worse), I think the T-Wolves are primed to become wolf-meat. Grizzlies all day for me.
Bucks/Blazers first quarter over 59 (-115), 2.5 units and Bucks win 1st quarter (-130), 2 units: The Blazers have been on a tear lately, winning their last 4 games, all on the road, and by an average margin right around 10 points. In those games, Portland has scored 124, 122, 112, and 125. They’re lighting up the scoreboard and racing ahead of their opponents, and it’s showing. A team usually not known for their tempo, the Blazers are now the 17th fastest unit in the NBA. Milwaukee is #3. You know what other tidbit I gathered in looking at the Blazers’ last 4 wins? They don’t play much defense in the 1st quarter. Teams have scored 25, 32, 41, and 33 points in the first 12 minutes of play. And these aren’t offensive juggernauts either– we’re talking about the Pistons, Raptors, Heat and Magic– four of the lowest scoring teams in the association. The Bucks thrive by moving the ball quickly down the court, often thanks to Giannis’ long strides, and scoring quickly and in bunches. It overwhelms opponents and it reminds me of what we’re seeing in Gonzaga. This game could slow down if it gets contentious later in the game, but I love the first quarter going over. I expect a barrage of offense from two confident teams; Milwaukee is feeling equally good after their big win over LAL. For all the reasons mentioned above, I like the Bucks in the first, too.
